Parti Québécois (PQ, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon) wins at least 60 of 125 seats in Quebec's National Assembly — provincial election 5 October 2026 (confirmed by Élections Québec by 6 October 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. October 2026
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Predicted for 5. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The 1 October 2026 Léger poll places PQ at 29% (PLQ 25%), a clear lead. The vote-scope.com seat-projection model (50,000 simulations) shows a median of 66 PQ seats; the 60-seat threshold corresponds to roughly the 25th percentile of that distribution. No Polymarket market for Quebec 2026 found. The majority threshold is 63 seats (125-seat Assembly; platform's existing open prediction targets ≥64). A ≥60 prediction is fully consistent with the existing platform prediction (PQ ≥64) and adds information: it resolves TRUE even in a near-miss majority scenario. CAQ collapse (<10 seats) and PLQ recovery (≥30 seats) are already captured in separate open predictions.
Data basis for this prediction
- Léger-Umfrage 1. Oktober 2026: PQ 29 %, PLQ 25 %, PCQ ~13 %, QS ~10 % — thewrit.ca / poliwave.com
- vote-scope.com Sitzprojektion (50.000 Simulationen, Stand ~3. Oktober 2026): PQ Median 66 Sitze, Mehrheitsschwelle 63 Sitze
- poliwave.com Sitzprognose: PQ 63/127 Sitze (Einzelquellen variieren 60–68 je nach Modell)
- Provinzwahltermin Québec: 5. Oktober 2026 — Élections Québec (official)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
All leading electoral models position the PLQ as the second-strongest party behind the PQ. 338Canada (as of October 3, 2026) projects 39 seats as its central estimate (90% CI: 33–44), PoliWave projects 34 seats, and 127QC 35–36 seats. The PLQ was polling at 25–26% of votes (Léger, October 1, 2026). The prediction market Lines.com assigns 65.5% probability to PLQ winning ≥ 28 seats; Cassandra calibrates the slightly higher bar of 30+ seats at 65%, as the lower tail of the model range does not fully rule out a sub-30-seat outcome.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Talarico 61% (as of 4 October 2026) — a remarkable figure for a Democratic candidate in Texas, a Republican stronghold since the 1990s. John Cornyn (senator since 2002, term ending January 2027) faces his third re-election bid. The national trend strongly favors Democrats: Polymarket assigns 93% for a House majority and 63% for a Senate majority. Talarico benefits from demographic shifts (urban and Latino voters, metros Dallas/Houston/Austin) and above-average small-dollar fundraising. No significant counter-indicator in current data. Own estimate follows market: 61%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Kalshi places the Sudan Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) at ~13% — just behind Mark Carney (~14%) and ahead of Doctors Without Borders (~10%). The field spans 287 nominations (208 individuals, 79 organisations), keeping individual probabilities naturally low. The ERRs — a civilian-led relief network providing food, medical care and evacuations since Sudan's 2023 civil war — were first nominated in 2025. An ERR win would continue the committee's tradition of honouring acute humanitarian crises.