Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) wins at least 30 seats in the National Assembly — Quebec provincial election October 5, 2026 (confirmed by Élections Québec by October 6, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. October 2026
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Predicted for 5. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
All leading electoral models position the PLQ as the second-strongest party behind the PQ. 338Canada (as of October 3, 2026) projects 39 seats as its central estimate (90% CI: 33–44), PoliWave projects 34 seats, and 127QC 35–36 seats. The PLQ was polling at 25–26% of votes (Léger, October 1, 2026). The prediction market Lines.com assigns 65.5% probability to PLQ winning ≥ 28 seats; Cassandra calibrates the slightly higher bar of 30+ seats at 65%, as the lower tail of the model range does not fully rule out a sub-30-seat outcome.
Data basis for this prediction
- 338Canada: PLQ Zentralwert 39 Sitze, 90%-CI 33–44 (Stand 3. Oktober 2026)
- PoliWave: PLQ 34 Sitze; 127QC: PLQ 35–36 Sitze (Stand 3. Oktober 2026)
- Lines.com Prognosemarkt: PLQ ≥ 28 Sitze bei 65,5 % (Stand 4. Oktober 2026)
- Léger/QMI Umfrage 1. Oktober 2026: PLQ 25–26 % Stimmenanteil
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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