📈 Economy · Next Month

ifo Business Climate Index Germany (July 2026, release approx. July 28, 2026) reaches at least 89.0 points

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. July 2026 · Predicted for 28. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

42%

The ifo index is released monthly around the last Tuesday of the month (July release approx. July 28, 2026). ~9,000 firms surveyed on current conditions and expectations. Upside: first stabilization signals in German economy in H1 2026. Downside: ECB rate hike to 2.25% (June 2026), ongoing Hormuz crisis weighing on energy prices (WTI ~$82/bbl). Typical monthly moves: 1-2 points. Exact June 2026 reading unavailable; threshold of 89.0 sits in the upper range of recent prints (85–91 points). No Polymarket market found. Probability 42%.

Data basis for this prediction

ifo Institut Geschäftsklimaindex Methodik & Veröffentlichungskalender: ifo.de
EZB Leitzinserhöhung auf 2,25 % Juni 2026: ECB Pressemitteilung ecb.mp260611
WTI Crude 17.07.2026: ~82,15 USD/bbl (Oilprice.com)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Der ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex für Juli 2026 wurde am 27. Juli 2026 veröffentlicht und erreichte 86,6 Punkte (nach 85,7 im Juni) – deutlich unter der Schwelle von 89,0 Punkten. Die Vorhersage lag damit um 2,4 Punkte zu hoch. Obwohl der Index gestiegen ist, blieb er klar im unteren Teil der angenommenen Bandbreite (85–91 Punkte). Die Erwartungskomponente stieg auf 86,7 (+2,4 ggü. Juni), die Lagekomponente fiel leicht auf 86,5 (von 87,0). Quelle: ifo Institut (https://www.ifo.de/pressemitteilung/2026-07-27/ifo-geschaeftsklimaindex-gestiegen-juli-2026), FXStreet (https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germanys-ifo-business-climate-index-improves-to-866-in-july-beats-estimates-202607270806)

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