Flávio Bolsonaro (Partido Liberal) wins the second round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) — confirmed by TSE or AP by October 26, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. October 2026
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Predicted for 25. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Flávio Bolsonaro (son of Jair Bolsonaro, Senator from Rio de Janeiro, PL) won the first round on October 5, 2026 with 47.03% against Lula (45.16%), narrowly missing an absolute majority. The second round takes place on October 25, 2026. Post-first-round polls: Datafolha (Oct 8) 52% Flávio vs. 48% Lula; Ipespe (Oct 10) 52.7% Flávio vs. 47.3% Lula — technically tied but Flávio with a consistent lead. Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 88% (>$180M traded volume, as of Oct 12, 2026). Metaculus: 82%. The first-round leader historically wins the second round in Brazil in >85% of cases.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Flávio Bolsonaro ~88% vs. Lula ~12% — Volumen >180 Mio. USD (Stand 12.10.2026)
- Metaculus: Flávio Bolsonaro 82% Siegwahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 12.10.2026)
- Erster Wahlgang 5.10.2026: Flávio 47,03% (56,1 Mio. Stimmen) vs. Lula 45,16% (53,9 Mio.) — TSE
- Datafolha 8.10.2026: 52% Flávio vs. 48% Lula; Ipespe 10.10.2026: 52,7% vs. 47,3% (Rio Times Online)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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