📈 Economy · Next Week

Federal Reserve (FOMC) raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range on September 16, 2026 (confirmed by Fed press release by September 16, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 6. September 2026 · Predicted for 16. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

62%

CME FedWatch tools show ~66–70% probability for a 25bp hike at the FOMC meeting on September 15–16, 2026 (current range 3.50–3.75%). Kalshi sees 59–68%, Polymarket only 41% — a significant spread. Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivered a clearly hawkish speech on September 3, 2026, emphasizing inflation remains meaningfully above the 2% target. The strong Nonfarm Payrolls report on September 5 reinforced hike expectations. We anchor to CME/Kalshi with a slight discount for the Polymarket divergence. Polymarket sees 41%.

Data basis for this prediction

CME FedWatch Tool: ~66–70 % Wahrscheinlichkeit 25-bp-Hike Sep 16 (Stand Sep 5, 2026) – cmegroup.com / kucoin.com
Kalshi: 59–68 % Wahrscheinlichkeit Sep-Hike (Stand Sep 5, 2026) – kalshi.com / oddsshopper.com
Polymarket: 41 % Sep-Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand Sep 3, 2026) – polymarket.com
CNBC / Yahoo Finance: Fed Gov. Waller hawkish speech Sep 3, 2026; NFP Sep 5, 2026 stärker als erwartet

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] FOMC beschloss am 16. September 2026 eine Anhebung um 25 Bps auf 3,75–4,00 %. Quelle: CNBC, 16.09.2026.

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