📈 Economy
· Next Month
Federal Reserve (FOMC) keeps the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on 29 July 2026 (no rate move)
Probability
74%
Fed futures markets imply 74.9% probability of a hold at 3.50–3.75%; 25.1% for a 25bp hike; 0% for a cut (early July 2026). Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (in office since 17 June 2026), core PCE inflation stands at 3.4% YoY, CPI at 4.2% YoY — well above the 2% target. The FOMC's median year-end 2026 projection has been raised to 3.8%; nine of 18 officials project at least one hike. Polymarket prices 0% chance of a July cut.
Data basis for this prediction
- Fed Futures: 74,9 % Halten / 25,1 % Erhöhung / 0 % Senkung (Motley Fool / AOL, Stand früher Juli 2026)
- Neuer Fed-Chef Kevin Warsh: Erstes FOMC-Meeting 17. Juni 2026 (federalreserve.gov Pressemitteilung)
- US CPI: 4,2 % YoY Mai 2026; Kern-PCE: 3,4 % YoY (Forbes / fedratecalc.com, Juli 2026)
- FOMC-Meeting: 28.–29. Juli 2026 (fedratecalc.com Terminkalender)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die FOMC-Entscheidung vom 29. Juli 2026 bestätigte die Vorhersage vollständig: Die Fed beließ den Leitzins unverändert bei 3,50–3,75 % (9:3-Abstimmung). Die drei Dissidenten (Hammack/Cleveland, Kashkari/Minneapolis, Logan/Dallas) votierten für eine Erhöhung um 25 Bp., blieben aber in der Minderheit. Quellen: federalreserve.gov (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html), NPR (https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5910558/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation)