📈 Economy
· Next Week
ECB holds deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% on July 23, 2026
Probability
88%
The ECB surprised with a 25bp hike to 2.25% on June 11, 2026 — its first tightening since 2023. Markets now price 88–93% probability of a hold at the July 23 meeting (ECB Watch / Morningstar / Piptheory, as of July 18). Without new projections and with the June move still being assessed, a further hike is too high a bar. Lagarde press conference at 14:30 CET.
Data basis for this prediction
- EZB-Pressemitteilung ecb.mp260611: Einlagensatz auf 2,25 % angehoben (11. Juni 2026)
- ECB Watch Tool / Morningstar: 88–93 % Halte-Wahrscheinlichkeit für 23. Juli 2026 (Stand 18.07.2026)
- Piptheory ECB Preview Juli 2026: 'markets pricing ~88% odds it holds at 2.25%' (piptheory.com)
- Morningstar: 'ECB Rate Decision: What to Expect on July 23' (global.morningstar.com, Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.