Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) beats the adjusted Q3 FY2026 EPS consensus of approximately $1.89 per share at its earnings release on July 30, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Apple reports Q3 FY2026 results on July 30, 2026, after market close (quarter covering April–June 2026). Consensus EPS is approximately $1.89 (diluted, range $1.88–$1.93 depending on source). Apple has beaten EPS expectations in each of the last four quarters (historical beat rate: 4/4). In Q2 FY2026 (ending March 2026), Apple generated revenue of $111.2 billion (+17% YoY). For Q3, the company guides for 14–17% YoY revenue growth (revenue consensus: ~$108.9–$110.8 billion). Drivers: continued AI-driven iPhone upgrade cycle ('Apple Intelligence'), strong Services growth, and solid margins. No Polymarket market found for this event. Estimate based on historical beat frequency and growth momentum.
Data basis for this prediction
- 9to5Mac.com: 'Apple sets Q3 2026 earnings release for July 30' (2. Juli 2026) – EPS-Konsens ~$1,89
- AppleInsider.com: 'What to expect from Apple's Q3 2026 results on July 30' (2. Juli 2026): Umsatzkonsens ~$108,9 Mrd.
- Apple Inc. SEC Form 8-K Q2 FY2026 (28. März 2026): Revenue $111,2 Mrd. (+17 % YoY)
- Tickeron.com / TipRanks: Apple EPS-Beat-Historie – 4 aufeinanderfolgende Quartale übertroffen (Stand Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Apple hat am 30. Juli 2026 die EPS-Erwartungen klar übertroffen. Der bereinigte EPS lag bei 1,91 USD (vs. Konsens 1,89 USD), der GAAP-EPS sogar bei 2,02 USD (+29 % YoY). Umsatz: 109,4 Mrd. USD (Konsens ~108,9 Mrd. USD). Quellen: 9to5Mac (https://9to5mac.com/2026/07/30/apple-reports-q3-2026-earnings-109-4-billion-in-revenue-up-16/), MacRumors (https://www.macrumors.com/2026/07/30/apple-3q-2026-earnings/), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-q3-earnings-beat-estimates-151300909.html). Trotz des Beats fiel die Aktie nachbörslich ~6,65 %, da Investoren die künftige Guidance kritisch sahen – das ist für die Bewertung der Vorhersage (EPS-Beat) jedoch nicht relevant.
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✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
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✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.