Stage 9 of the Tour de France 2026 (July 12, Malemort–Ussel, 185.5 km) is not won by Tadej Pogačar
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 12. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Pogačar leads after Stage 6 (Tourmalet solo win) by 2:42 over Vingegaard. July 13 is the first rest day — a strong strategic incentive to conserve energy. Stage 9 is not a summit finish but a hilly stage (3,300m) — typical for a breakaway win. Polymarket prices Pogačar at 92% for overall win, but that does not imply aggressive attacking on non-summit stages. Historically GC favorites rarely win the last stage before a rest day when their lead is secure.
Data basis for this prediction
- TdF GC Stand 11.07.2026: Pogačar +2:42 auf Vingegaard (Cyclingnews / NBC Sports)
- Etappe 9 Profil: Hügeletappe 185,5 km, 3.300 hm, kein Bergziel (FloBikes / cyclingstage.com)
- Polymarket TdF-Gewinner: Pogačar 92 %, Vingegaard 5 % (Stand 11.07.2026)
- Erster Ruhetag: 13. Juli 2026 (TdF offizielles Programm)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
Pogačar is 2:42 ahead after 6 stages. Key summit finish: Stage 10 (July 14, Le Lioran, Bastille Day). On comparable climbs Pogačar typically gains 1.5–2.5 minutes — an additional gain of just 1:18 would push the lead above 4:00. Stages 11–13 are flat to lightly hilly (Vichy–Nevers, Magny-Cours–Chalon, Dole–Belfort); minimal further GC time gains. Polymarket: Pogačar 92% overall win, Vingegaard 5%.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
Scheffler enters as the market's top favorite with aggregate odds of +300 to +550 (implied ~23%), defending his title at the July 16–19 event in Southport. Royal Birkdale rewards long, accurate driving and rough precision — aligned with Scheffler's strengths. However, a deep field including Rory McIlroy (+700–850), Tommy Fleetwood (+1,400), and Jon Rahm (+1,900) makes any single-favorite win in a major a relatively rare outcome.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
Antonelli leads after 9 of 22 races with 179 points, 25 ahead of Mercedes teammate George Russell (154) and 32 ahead of Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari, 147). The championship is tight: Russell won the Austrian GP, Leclerc won the British GP (July 5), while Antonelli suffered technical problems. 13 races remain with up to ~338 available points. Mercedes dominates the Constructors' Championship (333 pts). Aggregate betting odds imply ~35–45% for Antonelli, ~28–32% for Russell, ~18% for Hamilton. Most likely single outcome but well below 50%.