Germany's hop harvest in 2026 stays below 41,000 tonnes
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. November 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Germany's hop harvest in 2025 totalled 43,141 tonnes (–7.2% vs. 46,497 tonnes in 2024). For 2026 the cultivation area shrunk by a further 1,101 hectares (–5.8%) to 17,861 ha — driven mainly by continued decline of Herkules acreage. Spring 2026 in the Hallertau was also exceptionally dry and warm (USDA FAS, Brewers Journal Summer Report 2026), typically resulting in lower per-hectare yields. At the same yield per hectare as 2025 (~2,260 kg/ha), the 5.8% smaller area implies a harvest of ~40,400 tonnes. Barth-Haas reports undersupply expectations for all major Hallertau varieties. No prediction market found. Final harvest statistics are typically published by the German Hop Growers' Association (DGHV) in October/November. Estimated probability below 41,000 tonnes: 58%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Deutsche Hopfenernte 2025: 43.141 t (–7,2 % vs. 46.497 t in 2024) (inside.beer / Barth-Haas Hop Update September 2025)
- Anbaufläche Deutschland 2026: 17.861 ha (–5,8 % / –1.101 ha ggü. 2025) (USDA FAS / Brewers Journal Summer Report 2026)
- Hallertau Frühjahr 2026: extrem trocken und warm (Brewers Journal Summer Report 2026)
- Barth-Haas: Unterversorgung bei Hallertau-Sorten 2026 erwartet (inside.beer, Marktdaten Juli 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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