Costco Q4 FY2026: Comparable Sales Growth (ex-Fuel) Exceeds 7.5% YoY (Earnings Report September 24, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. September 2026
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Predicted for 24. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Costco reports Q4 FY2026 today (Sept 24, 2026); total revenue (>$94.5B) and diluted EPS (>$6.50) are already tracked as open predictions. Comparable sales growth ex-fuel is a distinct, uncovered metric. In Q3 FY2026 (Feb–May 2026) Costco posted ~8.1% ex-fuel comp growth; analyst consensus for Q4 is ~7.8%. Seasonal summer strength (travel, food, electronics) and sustained membership growth (+8% YoY in Q3) support another beat of the 7.5% threshold. No Polymarket market available; estimate based on consensus data and historical trend.
Data basis for this prediction
- Costco Q3 FY2026 Earnings (Mai 2026): comparable sales growth ex-fuel ~8,1 % YoY (Costco Investor Relations)
- Bloomberg Analystenkonsens Q4 FY2026 comparable sales (ex-fuel): ~7,8 % (Stand Sept. 2026)
- MacroRadar.io: S&P 500 bei 7.762 am 23. Sept. 2026 — Konsumumfeld robust
- Costco Investor Relations: Veröffentlichungsdatum Q4 FY2026-Bericht = 24. September 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Costco Q4 FY2026 vergleichbares Umsatzwachstum ex-Kraftstoff: +6,7 % (gesamt) bzw. +7,2 % (USA) – beides unter der Schwelle von 7,5 %. Quelle: Offizielle Costco August-Sales-Pressemitteilung, 02.09.2026.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Target has beaten the EPS consensus in 30 of its last 43 estimates (69.8%). In the most recent Q2 FY2027, TGT posted $2.46 per share vs. a $2.35 consensus — a +76% earnings surprise. Q3 consensus is $2.06–$2.08 on $26.71B revenue (+16.85% YoY). No Polymarket market directly available; the ~70% historical beat rate is the anchor. Tailwind: stronger back-to-school and early holiday demand, margin gain from private-label mix. Risk: consumer spending under pressure from persistently high rates (Fed target 3.75–4.00%); discretionary category weakness could overshadow grocery strength.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
EUR/USD at ~1.1256 on November 7, 2026 (12-month change: −3.41%; monthly: −0.21%). Reaching <1.09 requires a −3.2% move — well above the recent monthly pace. Dollar-supportive: Fed December hike 67% (Kalshi) / 69% (OIS) / 74% (JPMorgan); WTI +49.9% YTD; October CPI consensus 3.7% YoY (BLS, November 10). Counterweight: ECB also expected to hike to 2.75% (79% market-implied, December 2026), supporting EUR. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level. Entry scenario: renewed Strait of Hormuz escalation triggers dollar-flight. Probability: 20%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
WTI at ~$89.86–90.52 on November 7, 2026 (+49.9% YTD from $60.40). Trump confirmed new US strikes on Qeshm Island on November 7; the IRGC deployed mines against tankers and seized two vessels. The Strait of Hormuz (~20% of global oil trade) faces direct disruption risk. OPEC+ held November production steady. No specific prediction market found for the $95 threshold. Reaching $95 requires a +5.5% move — achievable under renewed Strait escalation, but not the base case. Probability: 26%.