📈 Economy · Next Week

China NBS official Manufacturing PMI July 2026 (July 31, 2026) prints at 50.0 points or above — first expansionary reading since March 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

37%

China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5 in June 2026 — four consecutive months below 50. Caixin Manufacturing PMI June: 49.7. The US-China trade truce of June 2026 (US tariffs 30%, Chinese counter-tariffs 10%) stabilizes export expectations. China's State Council announced auto and electronics sector support measures in July. A move to 50.0+ requires a +0.5pt jump — possible, but structural domestic demand weakness (property sector) remains a headwind.

Data basis for this prediction

NBS Manufacturing PMI China Juni 2026: 49,5 Pkt. (NBS/Reuters, 30. Juni 2026)
Caixin Manufacturing PMI China Juni 2026: 49,7 Pkt. (Caixin, 1. Juli 2026)
US-China-Handelswaffenstillstand: US-Zölle 30%, CN-Zölle 10% (Mayer Brown, Juli 2026)
China Staatsrat: Stützungsmaßnahmen Automobil/Elektronik (Xinhua, Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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