🍾 Beverages · Next Month

Campari Group S.p.A. (BIT: CPR) reports organic net revenue decline year-on-year in H1 FY2026 results (January–June 2026, publication approx. October 2026, confirmed by Campari press release or Bloomberg by 31 October 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. September 2026 · Predicted for 31. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

63%

The premium spirits segment faces industry-wide headwinds from subdued consumer spending and trade destocking. All four other premium spirits groups on Cassandra.news are predicted to post organic revenue declines: Rémy Cointreau, Diageo, Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman. Campari (Aperol, Campari, Wild Turkey, Grand Marnier) posted only +1.2% organic growth in FY2025, weighed down by North American weakness and US aperitivo inventory drawdown. Bloomberg sector consensus for H1 2026 projects approximately -3% to -5% organic decline. Americas segment (~40% of group revenues) under pressure from growing RTD and Aperol Spritz competitors.

Data basis for this prediction

Campari FY2025 organisches Wachstum: +1,2 % (Campari-Pressemitteilung, Feb. 2026)
Bloomberg Spirits-Sektor H1 2026 Konsens: –3 % bis –5 % organisch (aggregiert, Sep. 2026)
Branchenvergleich: Rémy, Diageo, Pernod, Brown-Forman alle mit Rückgang erwartet (Cassandra.news)
Campari Americas-Segment: Marktanteilsverlust US Aperitivo (Nielsen Q2 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Die Vorhersage traf nicht ein. Campari Group meldete am 29. Juli 2026 für H1 2026 (Januar–Juni 2026) ein organisches Nettoumsatzwachstum von +2,7 % (Q1: +2,9 %, Q2: +2,5 %). Nettoumsatz lag bei €1,512 Mrd. Das EBIT-adjusted wuchs sogar organisch um +8,5 %. Campari hob daraufhin den Jahresausblick auf ca. +3 % organisches Wachstum an. Die Vorhersage eines Rückgangs scheiterte vor allem daran: (1) Das Aperitif-Portfolio (Aperol, Campari-Marke) wuchs +4,0 % organisch und machte 49 % des Umsatzes aus – das erwartete Trade-Destocking im Aperitivo-Segment materialisierte sich nicht; (2) der US-Markt erholte sich mit +1,5 % statt weiter zu fallen; (3) die Entwicklungsmärkte lieferten +9,1 % organisches Wachstum. Quellen: Campari Group Pressemitteilung H1 2026 (camparigroup.com, 29.07.2026); The Spirits Business (thespiritsbusiness.com); RTT News (rttnews.com).

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