Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps its benchmark rate unchanged at 1.00% on July 31, 2026 – no further rate move
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
·
Predicted for 31. July 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
The BoJ raised its benchmark rate by 25bp to 1.00% on June 16, 2026 – the highest level since 1995 (7-1 vote). For the July meeting (July 30–31), market consensus expects a hold: InvestingLive confirms 'BoJ set to keep rates unchanged at July meeting'; Bloomberg Survey implies ~85% hold probability. The next hike to 1.25% is priced in no earlier than Q4 2026. USD/JPY at approx. 162 JPY – no acute intervention pressure. This prediction is consistent with the open platform forecast 'BoJ at ≥1.25% by Dec 31, 2026' (BoJ can hold in July and hike later).
Data basis for this prediction
- BoJ hikes to 1,00% on June 16, 2026 – CNBC / BoJ press release k260616a
- BoJ July meeting: rates unchanged expected, tightening guidance maintained – InvestingLive, Juli 2026
- USD/JPY 13.07.2026: 162,41 JPY – exchange-rates.org / MTFX
- BoJ Meeting Calendar July 30–31, 2026 – financecalendar.com / mnimarkets.com
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die BoJ hielt den Leitzins am 31. Juli 2026 exakt bei 1,00 % – Abstimmung 8:1 (einziger Gegenstimme: Board-Mitglied Hajime Takata, der eine Anhebung auf 1,25 % forderte). Alle 52 von Bloomberg befragten Ökonomen hatten ein Halten erwartet. Quellen: Bloomberg ('Bank of Japan Holds Interest Rate Steady at 1% as Expected', 2026-07-31), Japan Times ('BOJ keeps rates unchanged amid speculation of yen intervention', 2026-07-31), offizielles BoJ-Statement (boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260731a.pdf).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.