Bank of Japan keeps policy rate unchanged at 1.00% at October 30, 2026 meeting (confirmed by Bank of Japan or Bloomberg by October 31, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. September 2026
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Predicted for 30. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket prices a 78% probability of no change at the BOJ MPM on October 29–30, 2026; only 22% for another hike. The BOJ last raised rates in June 2026 from 0.75% to 1.00%. Governor Ueda has stressed data-dependency; near-term energy-price and yen-weakness inflation risks persist, but a pre-December pause is the base case. Polymarket implies 78%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'Bank of Japan Decision in October?' Market: 78 % Keine Änderung / 22 % Hike (Stand: Sept. 24, 2026)
- CentralBank.watch BOJ Rate Probability Tool 2026: Consensus Hold
- Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Releases 2026: MPM Oct. 29–30, Statement Oct. 30
- FXStreet Analysis 'Bank of Japan still on course for October hike for now' (31. Juli 2026) – Marktdrift seither zu Hold
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BoJ hielt den Leitzins am 30. Oktober 2026 bei 1,25% (nach September-Anhebung), nicht bei 1,00%. Quelle: Bloomberg, Japan Times
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