Bank of Japan keeps policy rate unchanged at 1.00% at October 30, 2026 meeting (confirmed by Bank of Japan or Bloomberg by October 31, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. September 2026
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Predicted for 30. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket prices a 78% probability of no change at the BOJ MPM on October 29–30, 2026; only 22% for another hike. The BOJ last raised rates in June 2026 from 0.75% to 1.00%. Governor Ueda has stressed data-dependency; near-term energy-price and yen-weakness inflation risks persist, but a pre-December pause is the base case. Polymarket implies 78%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'Bank of Japan Decision in October?' Market: 78 % Keine Änderung / 22 % Hike (Stand: Sept. 24, 2026)
- CentralBank.watch BOJ Rate Probability Tool 2026: Consensus Hold
- Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Releases 2026: MPM Oct. 29–30, Statement Oct. 30
- FXStreet Analysis 'Bank of Japan still on course for October hike for now' (31. Juli 2026) – Marktdrift seither zu Hold
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Analyst consensus for September 2026 is ~120K; Capital Economics is a low outlier at +50K, citing federal workforce cuts. August surprised to the upside at +162K (consensus: +42K). Lines.com prediction market shows 71% NO probability for the 50K–100K band, implying a significant lean above 100K. The ADP report (October 1) provides an early-read indicator.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
First trading day after Silver Week: Nikkei 225 at ~65,920 (+1.39% vs. prior close of 65,018.95 on Sep 18, 2026). Polymarket 'Nikkei 225 Close Price End of 2026' (total volume: $10,908): the 70,000–75,000 bracket has the highest volume at $4,020, implying modest appreciation as the modal scenario; combined bracket prices above 70,000 pts imply ~33%. Reaching 68,000 by year-end requires ~3.2% gain — I derive ~40%. Key headwind: BOJ raised rates to 1.25% on September 18, 2026 (31-year high), creating yen appreciation pressure on export-heavy stocks (Toyota, Sony).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
US initial jobless claims for the week of September 20, 2026 came in at only 196,000 (consensus: 201k; US DOL, published Sep 24, 2026), a level historically consistent with job openings well above 7.0 million. The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026 (first hike since 2023); at this level, hiring demand declines gradually, but a sudden drop below 7.0M appears premature. Kalshi's US GDP 2026 consensus (cluster 1.6–2.5%) points to a moderate but positive economic environment. No direct JOLTS prediction market found on Polymarket or Kalshi.