Bank of Japan keeps its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% on 31 July 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.00% on 16 June 2026 (highest since 1995). The next meeting is on 30–31 July 2026. Arguments against a further hike: (1) Sangiin election on 20 July — LDP+Komeito expected to lose majority (open prediction), raising political pressure on BoJ; (2) Nikkei closed on 16 July at 66,835 (–2.79%) — market stress; (3) JPY appreciation risk from further hikes weighs on Japanese export sector; (4) BoJ typically waits 2–3 meetings between hikes. Arguments for a hike: inflation above BoJ target and USD/JPY pressure. Bloomberg consensus: ~65% probability of hold. Conservative discount for political uncertainty post-Sangiin.
Data basis for this prediction
- BoJ Leitzinsentscheid 16.06.2026: +25 BP auf 1,00 % (BoJ / Investing.com, Juni 2026)
- Nikkei 225 Schlussstand 16.07.2026: 66.835 (–2,79 %) (Trading Economics / Yahoo Finance)
- Offene Plattform-Vorhersage: LDP+Komeito verliert Mehrheit im Sangiin (20.07.2026)
- BoJ Meeting Juli 2026: 30.–31. Juli 2026 (Bank of Japan offizielle Website)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Bank of Japan hat am 31. Juli 2026 die Leitzinsen tatsächlich unverändert bei 1,00 % belassen. Die Entscheidung fiel mit 8:1 Stimmen und entsprach dem Konsens aller 52 von Bloomberg befragten Ökonomen. Die BoJ begründete die Pause mit der Notwendigkeit, die Auswirkungen der Juni-Anhebung auf Wirtschaft und Preise zu bewerten. Quellen: Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-31/bank-of-japan-holds-interest-rate-steady-at-1-as-expected), Nikkei (https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB310PN0R30C26A7000000/), Focus Economics (https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/monetary-policy/japan-central-bank-meeting-31-07-2026-bank-of-japan-holds-rates-in-july/).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.