Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) beats adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. USD 1.88 per share in Q3 FY2026 results (30 July 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Apple reports Q3 FY2026 (April–June 2026 quarter) on 30 July 2026 after market close. Consensus: ~USD 1.88 adjusted EPS, ~USD 108.9 bn revenue. Apple has beaten EPS consensus in 19 of the last 20 quarters. Strong drivers: iPhone 17 super-cycle (AI integration via Apple Intelligence), Services segment growing >15% YoY (higher margins than hardware), Mac/iPad refreshed with Apple Silicon M4. Headwinds: China risk (Huawei competition, potential Hormuz-related retaliation), USD strength compressing international revenues. No specific Kalshi/Polymarket market for Apple Q3 FY2026 EPS found; calibrated to historical beat rate. Tesla Q2 deliveries +25% YoY and TSMC +36% YoY signal sustained tech consumer demand.
Data basis for this prediction
- Apple Q3 FY2026 Earnings Date: 30.07.2026 (MacDailyNews / 9to5Mac / SEC, Stand 17.07.2026)
- Konsens EPS ~1,88 USD, Umsatz ~108,9 Mrd. USD (Yahoo Finance / MarketBeat, Stand 17.07.2026)
- TSMC Q2 2026: +36 % Umsatz YoY (TechPowerUp / SEC Form 6-K, Juli 2026)
- Tesla Q2 2026 Auslieferungen: 480.126 (+25 % YoY) (Electrek / Tesla IR, Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Apple meldete am 30. Juli 2026 für Q3 FY2026 einen bereinigten Non-GAAP-EPS von ca. 1,91 USD, was den Konsens von ~1,88 USD um rund 1,6 % übertraf. Der GAAP-EPS lag sogar bei 2,02 USD (+29 % YoY), enthielt jedoch einen einmaligen Steuereffekt aus Zollrückerstattungen (+0,11 USD). Der Umsatz betrug 109,4 Mrd. USD (+16 % YoY), ebenfalls über dem Konsens von ~108,9 Mrd. USD. Die Vorhersage ist damit klar eingetreten. Quellen: 9to5Mac (https://9to5mac.com/2026/07/30/apple-reports-q3-2026-earnings-109-4-billion-in-revenue-up-16/), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-aapl-q3-earnings-revenues-220002623.html), MacRumors (https://www.macrumors.com/2026/07/30/apple-3q-2026-earnings/).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.