Bank of England raises the Bank Rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 4.00% at the MPC meeting on November 5, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. September 2026
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Predicted for 5. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The MPC voted 6–3 to hold at 3.75% on September 16, 2026 — three members (Greene, Mann, Pill) already called for an immediate hike to 4.00%. UK CPI stood at 3.1% in August (above the 2% target), supported by persistently elevated energy prices from the Iran war fuel crisis. Polymarket prices 70% probability of a BoE rate hike in November. The narrow September vote and external inflation pressures suggest hawks will form a majority at the next meeting. Headwinds: weakening UK GDP and possible energy price easing after Saudi pipeline restart.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 70% für 'Bank of England 25 bps hike in November 2026' (Stand 24.09.2026)
- BoE MPC September 2026: Votum 6:3 für Hold bei 3,75% (Bank of England MPC Minutes, 16.09.2026)
- UK CPI August 2026: 3,1% YoY — über 2%-Ziel (ONS / Mortgage Solutions, 17.09.2026)
- Brent Rohöl ~103 USD/bbl am 24.09.2026: Inflationsdruck durch Iran-Energiekrise hält an (Trading Economics)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Germany's HICP was +2.9% YoY in August 2026 – just below the market expectation of 3.0% (FXStreet: 'slower than expected'). Energy prices accelerated to +10.5% YoY in August (from +8.3% in July and +3.4% in June), driven by Iran-war oil-price pass-through. Core inflation (HICP ex energy/food) holds at 2.6%. For September, energy base effects are more favorable as oil prices were still lower in autumn 2025 – supporting a further rise in the energy component and thus a Headline HICP crossing 3.0%. No direct prediction market for September German HICP found; calibration accounts for the August miss.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
July 2026 headline PCE was 3.7% yoy (+0.2% mom); Core PCE at 3.3% yoy. The BEA report for August is released on 30 September 2026. WTI crude held near $90 throughout August 2026, supporting the energy component of the headline index. The 3.5% threshold implies only a marginal 20 bps decline from July – realistic if the energy component contributes neutrally or slightly negatively. No direct Polymarket market found; calibrated from July BEA actuals and August energy-price levels.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20, 2026 printed at 196,000 — well below the 201,000 consensus and among the lowest readings in months. The Labor Department releases data for the following week (ending September 26) on October 1, 2026. A structurally tight labor market, stable wages, and no reported mass layoffs support another sub-210,000 print. No direct Polymarket anchor for this specific weekly threshold; calibration is based on the recent data trajectory (four weeks in the 190,000–205,000 range per TradingEconomics). Upside risk: seasonal adjustments around quarter-end.