Bank of England raises the Bank Rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 4.00% at the MPC meeting on November 5, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. September 2026
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Predicted for 5. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The MPC voted 6–3 to hold at 3.75% on September 16, 2026 — three members (Greene, Mann, Pill) already called for an immediate hike to 4.00%. UK CPI stood at 3.1% in August (above the 2% target), supported by persistently elevated energy prices from the Iran war fuel crisis. Polymarket prices 70% probability of a BoE rate hike in November. The narrow September vote and external inflation pressures suggest hawks will form a majority at the next meeting. Headwinds: weakening UK GDP and possible energy price easing after Saudi pipeline restart.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 70% für 'Bank of England 25 bps hike in November 2026' (Stand 24.09.2026)
- BoE MPC September 2026: Votum 6:3 für Hold bei 3,75% (Bank of England MPC Minutes, 16.09.2026)
- UK CPI August 2026: 3,1% YoY — über 2%-Ziel (ONS / Mortgage Solutions, 17.09.2026)
- Brent Rohöl ~103 USD/bbl am 24.09.2026: Inflationsdruck durch Iran-Energiekrise hält an (Trading Economics)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BoE hob Bank Rate von 3,75 % auf 4,00 % (+25 bp) am 5. November 2026 an (Quelle: Bloomberg/BoE-Pressemitteilung)
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