📈 Economy · Next Week

Bank of England holds base rate unchanged at 3.75% on July 30, 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

62%

The BoE held at 3.75% on June 18, 2026, citing ongoing Middle East uncertainty. For the MPC meeting on July 30, hold expectations dominate: Oxford Economics forecasts no change 'for the rest of 2026 and well into 2027'. Counter-view: BofA sees a hike in July or September if UK services CPI (June data, released July 22) remains elevated. This platform predicts UK services CPI ≥3.5% — a potential hike catalyst, but likely just below the BoE's threshold. Net: hold at 62% probability.

Data basis for this prediction

Bank of England: Leitzins 3,75 % nach MPC-Sitzung 18. Juni 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk)
HomeOwners Alliance: 'Zinserhöhung beim 30. Juli-MPC unwahrscheinlich' (hoa.org.uk, Juli 2026)
Oxford Economics: BoE hält Leitzins bis weit in 2027 (Morningstar UK, morningstar.com)
BofA: Zinserhöhungen in Juli/September möglich (uk.finance.yahoo.com)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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