📈 Economy · Next Week

Bank of England holds base rate unchanged at 3.75% on July 30, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

62%

The BoE held at 3.75% on June 18, 2026, citing ongoing Middle East uncertainty. For the MPC meeting on July 30, hold expectations dominate: Oxford Economics forecasts no change 'for the rest of 2026 and well into 2027'. Counter-view: BofA sees a hike in July or September if UK services CPI (June data, released July 22) remains elevated. This platform predicts UK services CPI ≥3.5% — a potential hike catalyst, but likely just below the BoE's threshold. Net: hold at 62% probability.

Data basis for this prediction

Bank of England: Leitzins 3,75 % nach MPC-Sitzung 18. Juni 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk)
HomeOwners Alliance: 'Zinserhöhung beim 30. Juli-MPC unwahrscheinlich' (hoa.org.uk, Juli 2026)
Oxford Economics: BoE hält Leitzins bis weit in 2027 (Morningstar UK, morningstar.com)
BofA: Zinserhöhungen in Juli/September möglich (uk.finance.yahoo.com)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Bank of England hielt den Leitzins am 30. Juli 2026 unverändert bei 3,75 %. Das MPC stimmte mit 6:3 für keine Änderung (drei Mitglieder – Pill, Greene, Mann – votierten für eine Anhebung auf 4,0 %). Die Vorhersage trat damit exakt ein. Bemerkenswert: Die Entscheidung wurde als 'hawkish hold' gewertet, da die Zahl der Hike-Befürworter von zwei auf drei stieg, was auf weiterhin erhöhten Inflationsdruck hindeutet. Quellen: Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026), Fortune (https://fortune.com/2026/07/30/bank-of-england-keeps-interest-rates-at-3-75-for-fifth-time-this-year/), IG (https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-strategies/bank-of-england-interest-rate-decision-july-2026-260731)

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