📈 Economy · Next Month

Bank of England leaves base rate unchanged at 3.75% on July 30, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

84%

The Bank of England stabilized its base rate at 3.75% after a 2025 easing cycle. As of July 2, 2026, financial markets expected a hold for the remainder of 2026. UK CPI stood at 2.8% in May 2026 — above the 2% target, making further easing unlikely. The recently signed US-Iran peace deal reduces oil price pressure. The July 30 MPC meeting includes the Quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Market-implied hold probability: ~85%; own calibration: 84%.

Data basis for this prediction

HomeOwners Alliance (2.7.2026): Markterwartung – BoE hält 3,75% für Rest 2026
Bank of England: Aktueller Base Rate 3,75% (nach Senkungszyklus 2025)
UK CPI Mai 2026: 2,8% (über 2%-Ziel; Quelle: ONS / HOA)
Equals Money: Nächste BoE-Entscheidung 30.7.2026 – MPC mit Quarterly MPR

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Bank of England hat am 30. Juli 2026 den Leitzins wie vorhergesagt bei 3,75% belassen. Das MPC stimmte mit 6:3 für eine Beibehaltung; drei Mitglieder votierten für eine Erhöhung auf 4,0%. Es war die fünfte aufeinanderfolgende Sitzung ohne Änderung. Quellen: Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026), Fortune (https://fortune.com/2026/07/30/bank-of-england-keeps-interest-rates-at-3-75-for-fifth-time-this-year/). Anmerkung: Die Begründung der Vorhersage war teilweise ungenau – Öl-/Energiepreise blieben durch Nahost-Ereignisse volatil und erhöht (nicht gedämpft), und der hawkische Tonfall (3 Dissenter für Erhöhung) war stärker als erwartet. Das Kernergebnis (Hold bei 3,75%) trat jedoch exakt ein.

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