📈 Economy · Next Month

Bank of England leaves base rate unchanged at 3.75% on July 30, 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

84%

The Bank of England stabilized its base rate at 3.75% after a 2025 easing cycle. As of July 2, 2026, financial markets expected a hold for the remainder of 2026. UK CPI stood at 2.8% in May 2026 — above the 2% target, making further easing unlikely. The recently signed US-Iran peace deal reduces oil price pressure. The July 30 MPC meeting includes the Quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Market-implied hold probability: ~85%; own calibration: 84%.

Data basis for this prediction

HomeOwners Alliance (2.7.2026): Markterwartung – BoE hält 3,75% für Rest 2026
Bank of England: Aktueller Base Rate 3,75% (nach Senkungszyklus 2025)
UK CPI Mai 2026: 2,8% (über 2%-Ziel; Quelle: ONS / HOA)
Equals Money: Nächste BoE-Entscheidung 30.7.2026 – MPC mit Quarterly MPR

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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