ECB raises its deposit rate to 2.50% at the September 2026 Governing Council meeting (approx. September 10-11)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 11. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
ECB unexpectedly raised the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25% on June 11, 2026. July meeting (July 23) held per Cassandra projection. September meeting (~Sept 10-11) is the next window. For another hike: Eurozone HICP above 2%; June hike showed normalization bias; EUR/USD >1.13 limits import inflation. Against: growth slowdown, Fed on hold at 3.50-3.75%. OIS futures imply ~28-33% for September hike.
Data basis for this prediction
- EZB Einlagensatz +25 Bp auf 2,25 % am 11.06.2026 (ECB Pressemitteilung, 11.06.2026)
- OIS-Terminmarkt EUR: ~28–33 % für weiteren EZB-Hike bis September 2026 (Bloomberg/Reuters-Schätzung)
- EZB-Ratstreffen-Kalender 2026: Juli 23, September ~10-11, Oktober ~29, Dezember ~17 (ECB Website)
- Cassandra-Vorhersagen (offen): EZB hält 23.07.2026 bei 2,25 %; EUR/USD > 1,13 am 18.07.2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EZB hob den Einlagensatz beim September-2026-Ratstreffen auf 2,50% an (25 Bp-Erhöhung von 2,25%), wirksam ab 16. September 2026. Quellen: ECB official page, Market Business News, Babypips.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.