📈 Economy · Next Year

ECB raises its deposit rate to 2.50% at the September 2026 Governing Council meeting (approx. September 10-11)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. July 2026 · Predicted for 11. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

30%

ECB unexpectedly raised the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25% on June 11, 2026. July meeting (July 23) held per Cassandra projection. September meeting (~Sept 10-11) is the next window. For another hike: Eurozone HICP above 2%; June hike showed normalization bias; EUR/USD >1.13 limits import inflation. Against: growth slowdown, Fed on hold at 3.50-3.75%. OIS futures imply ~28-33% for September hike.

Data basis for this prediction

EZB Einlagensatz +25 Bp auf 2,25 % am 11.06.2026 (ECB Pressemitteilung, 11.06.2026)
OIS-Terminmarkt EUR: ~28–33 % für weiteren EZB-Hike bis September 2026 (Bloomberg/Reuters-Schätzung)
EZB-Ratstreffen-Kalender 2026: Juli 23, September ~10-11, Oktober ~29, Dezember ~17 (ECB Website)
Cassandra-Vorhersagen (offen): EZB hält 23.07.2026 bei 2,25 %; EUR/USD > 1,13 am 18.07.2026

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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