Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) reports organic volume decline in North America in Q3 FY2026 (July–September 2026, release ca. 29 October 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. September 2026
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Predicted for 29. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
ABI reported ~1.9% YoY volume decline in the US in H1 2025. Bud Light recovery is extremely slow (0.1-0.2 ppts per 3-4 weeks). Michelob Ultra now leads US beer by volume but doesn't fully offset North America declines. Q3 2026 organic volume decline remains likely. No prediction market; own calibration: ~62%.
Data basis for this prediction
- AB InBev Q3 2025 Results (BusinessWire, 29. Oktober 2025): North America volumes –1,9 % YoY
- Accio.com – Bud Light Sales Drop Trend 2026: Marktanteilserholung sehr langsam (Stand: Q1 2026)
- AB InBev Full Year & Q4 2025 Results (BusinessWire, 11. Februar 2026): Nordamerika schwächste Region
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Boston Beer reported a 3.3% net revenue decline to USD 568.3m in Q2 FY2026 (April–June 2026), missing consensus estimates; depletions –6%, shipments –4.5%. The structural decline in the hard seltzer segment (Truly) continues; Samuel Adams stabilises the beer segment but does not fully compensate. Q3 is seasonally a relatively strong quarter for beer, but headwinds from shrinking seltzer volumes persist. No direct prediction market; probability derived from existing trend extrapolation.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Brown-Forman reported organic net revenue decline of 1% to $911 million in Q1 FY2027 (May–July 2026, released September 2, 2026). FY2027 guidance is 'approximately flat' – implying later quarters could either compensate or compound the Q1 decline. Brown-Forman explicitly warned of increasing impact from higher-cost whiskey inventory from an inflationary period on second-half results. Diageo (directly comparable portfolio: US spirits –11.5% in FY2026) and all other major spirits producers report similar structural declines. 58% probability of another organic decline in Q2 as the headwinds are structural.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Molson Coors reported a -6.4% financial volume decline in the North America segment in Q2 FY2026 (April–June 2026), with US domestic shipments down -7.3%. The overall US beer market was -4.2% in the same period — Molson Coors is underperforming even the declining market. The drivers (shift to craft, spirits and no/low alcohol; aluminium cost pressure) are structural and cannot reverse within one quarter. Blue Moon and Coors Light are consistently losing share. Sector parallels: AB InBev, Heineken, Carlsberg and PepsiCo NAB are all tracking organic declines per open predictions on this platform for 2026. No Polymarket market available.