📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) reports Q3 FY2026 earnings on October 13, 2026 before market open. Analyst consensus total net revenue is $50.85B (8 analysts, MarketBeat). In Q2 FY2026 JPM beat significantly: $58.02B actual vs. $50.72B consensus (+14%). Drivers: net interest margin remains firm with the Fed target range at 3.75–4.00%, and trading/capital-markets activity is elevated. The $50.0B threshold sits 1.7% below consensus, providing a modest buffer. No Polymarket market for JPM Q3 found; calibrated from JPM's ~85% beat rate over the last 8 quarters → adjusted probability 63%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Wall Street consensus estimates Goldman Sachs' net revenues for Q3 FY2026 (July–September 2026) at $16.90 billion; the EPS consensus is $15.79. The $17.0 billion threshold sits ~0.6% above consensus, requiring a moderate beat. Drivers: Brent crude trades above $103/barrel at end of September 2026, boosting the trading desk (energy and commodities); plus a revived M&A pipeline and robust Asset & Wealth Management growth. Goldman Sachs has consistently beaten consensus estimates over the past four quarters. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for GS Q3 2026.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Citigroup reports Q3-FY2026 results on October 13, 2026 (8:00 AM ET). Analyst consensus stands at $23.75B total net revenues for Q3 2026 (Benzinga/Wall Street consensus, as of Sept 30, 2026) — an expected YoY growth of ~+7.4% vs. Q3 2025 actual of $22.1B. Q2 2026 came in at $24.8B (+14% YoY). CEO Jane Fraser's restructuring program continues to show positive effects; trading revenues and investment banking remain tailwinds. The $23.5B threshold sits ~$250M below consensus — historically Citi has beaten consensus estimates in ~60–65% of quarters. No Polymarket market available; own estimate: 68%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
JPMorgan Chase reports Q3 FY2026 results on October 13, 2026, before market open (confirmed by TipRanks). Analyst consensus EPS stands at $5.88 per share (TipRanks, as of September 2026). On the revenue threshold: JPMorgan's Managed Net Revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately $42.7 billion; assuming 3–5% YoY growth (supported by 2026 Fed rate hikes — current rate 3.75–4.00%, September hike at 12:0 vote per Schwab) implies an expected Q3 2026 range of ~$44.0–44.8 billion. The $44.0 billion threshold sits at the lower end of the estimate range. Risk: credit losses in a high-rate environment could trigger reserve builds. No Polymarket quote available; calibration via consensus EPS and historical revenue growth yields approximately 68%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Goldman Sachs will report net revenues above $17.5 billion in its Q3 FY2026 earnings on October 13, 2026 (before market open). Data: Analyst consensus Q3 FY2026 = $17.86B (TipRanks/Bloomberg, as of September 2026); the chosen $17.5B threshold is $360M below consensus — a safety buffer. Goldman Sachs beat expectations in Q1 FY2026. Drivers: strong M&A comeback (deal activity following the Fed's 2025 pause and renewed 2026 hiking cycle), active fixed-income and currency trading due to elevated macro volatility (Fed hiking, high US inflation), and private-equity fees from IPO-pipeline normalization. EPS consensus: ~$16.24–16.90/share. No Polymarket market found specifically for GS Q3; own calibration 72% based on consensus buffer and historical beat pattern.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Wells Fargo reports Q3 FY2026 results on October 13, 2026 (7:00 a.m. ET). Analyst consensus is $22.39 billion in total revenues and $1.84 EPS (Yahoo Finance/Benzinga). Large US banks beat consensus estimates in ~70–75% of quarters. The persistently high interest rate environment (Fed funds rate 3.75–4.00%, 10-year Treasury 5.33%) supports net interest income. 15 analysts rate Strong Buy, 3 Moderate Buy among 26 analysts. No Polymarket market for WFC earnings.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Analyst consensus (9 analysts, Yahoo Finance/FactSet, as of Oct 2, 2026) expects Q3 FY2026 total net revenues of $50.92B (range $49.36–$52.61B). The Q3 FY2025 comp was $46.43B (+9.7% YoY expected). EPS consensus is $5.88 (+15.2% YoY). JPMorgan has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters. The $50.5B threshold sits ~$420M below the midpoint – missing it would constitute a major negative surprise. No specific Polymarket market found; calibration based on historical large-bank consensus beat rate (~70%) minus a risk discount for net-interest-margin guidance risk in the current rising-yield environment: 65%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Goldman Sachs reports Q3 earnings before market open on 13 October 2026. Wall Street consensus: $17.42B net revenues, $15.39 EPS (Scanx/Tickeron, Sept. 2026). GS has advised on nearly $1T in M&A volume YTD 2026 — the strongest investment banking year in years — driving strong advisory fees and trading revenues. Q2 2026 massively beat with 78% profit growth (EPS $20.98, +92% YoY). The $17.0B threshold sits 2.4% below consensus and represents a conservative floor. Large US banks have systematically beaten estimates recently.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Wall Street consensus for Citigroup Q3-FY2026 total net revenues stands at $23.75 billion (TipRanks, Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, October 2026). The prediction threshold of $23.5 billion sits $0.25 billion (1.1%) below consensus. Large US banks historically beat or meet revenue estimates in approximately 60–65% of reporting periods. The stable rate environment (Fed funds rate 3.75–4.00%) supports net interest income; international trade-finance activity is robust. Investment banking revenues are expected to have modestly recovered versus Q2 2026. No direct Polymarket market found; calibration is based on consensus gap and historical beat rate.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Wells Fargo releases Q3 FY2026 results on 13 October 2026 before market open (~7:00 am ET). Analyst consensus stands at USD 22.33–22.34 billion in total net revenues (+EPS consensus: USD 1.84, +6.4% YoY). The USD 22.0 billion threshold sits USD 330 million (−1.5%) below consensus — WFC would need a meaningful miss for the prediction to fail. No Polymarket market for WFC found; the 78% probability is anchored on consensus proximity and historical beat rates for major US banks (JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi also reporting the same day).
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
JPM posted Q3 FY2025 total net revenues of $43.32 billion. Three structural drivers favor Q3 2026: (1) 10-year Treasury yield at 5.28% — well above prior year — materially lifts NII; (2) the weak NFP print (29,000 jobs, October 2) triggered heavy rates-market volatility, boosting trading and fixed-income revenues; (3) investment banking activity remains robust. JPM is the only one of the five major US banks not yet covered by open predictions. JPM beat consensus in 5 of the last 6 quarters. The $44.5B threshold represents +2.7% YoY — modest given the structural rate environment.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Goldman Sachs reports on October 13, 2026 before market open. Street consensus is $15.18–$15.39 EPS with revenues of $16.86–$17.42B. Q2 FY2026 delivered one of GS's largest historical EPS beats: $20.98 vs. $14.47 consensus (+$6.51, +45%). FICC trading and investment banking benefited from elevated market volatility in summer 2026. GS beats EPS consensus in historically ~80% of quarters. No direct Polymarket market available for this event; own calibration based on historical beat rate and Q2 dynamics. Threshold of $16.00 is 4% above the high consensus estimate, but well below the Q2 result. GS stock at $916.28 (–2.1% on October 9, 2026).
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The BLS confirmed on September 11, 2026 that August 2026 headline CPI was above 3.0% YoY (accelerating from July's 3.4%). Brent crude at $105–108/bbl remains well above the prior-year level of ~$80–85, keeping energy-driven headline CPI elevated for September as well. Core CPI stands at 2.4%; the ~0.8pp headline-core gap is almost entirely attributable to energy. Even with moderate oil-price easing, September CPI headline is very likely to remain above 3.0% YoY.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Citigroup reports Q3-FY2026 results on October 13, 2026, pre-market open. General consensus: ~$2.65 EPS (Pluang/market majority), Alphastreet estimate: $2.62. Benzinga anticipates higher year-over-year earnings. The 90-day estimate stood at $2.69 — the modest downward drift suggests conservative analyst positioning, which increases the probability of a positive surprise. Large US banks historically beat EPS consensus in ~65% of quarters. The $2.65 threshold corresponds to the upper end of the consensus range.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Johnson & Johnson reports Q3-FY2026 earnings on October 13, 2026 before market open. Analyst consensus EPS stands at $2.66 (MarketBeat, October 12, 2026). J&J has beaten consensus EPS estimates in approximately 75-80% of recent quarters. The Innovative Medicine segment (oncology, immunology) and stable MedTech demand support another beat. No specific Polymarket or Metaculus market found; probability conservatively derived from historical beat rate.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is announced October 12. Partha Dasgupta (Cambridge) leads the Kalshi prediction market at ~14%, ahead of Ariel Pakes (~11%) and Philippe Aghion (~9%). Dasgupta is recognized for pioneering contributions to environmental economics and welfare theory, notably the Dasgupta Review on the Economics of Biodiversity (HM Treasury, 2021). The committee has repeatedly signalled climate-relevant research fields in recent cycles. Despite market leadership, Economics Nobels frequently surprise; market probability taken as direct anchor. Confirmed by the Royal Swedish Academy by October 13, 2026.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Ariel Pakes (Harvard University) leads the Kalshi prediction market for the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2026 at 23% (announcement: 2nd Monday of October = 12 October 2026). Pakes' contribution to the Berry-Levinsohn-Pakes (BLP) model for estimating demand functions and market power is a standard reference in industrial economics. Other strong candidates: Richard Blundell (16%, labour supply models), Partha Dasgupta (14%, natural capital and environmental economics), Robert Barro (11%, endogenous growth). The field is extremely open: no single candidate exceeds 25% on Kalshi. The prediction adopts the market anchor with a slight discount. Note: as the only one of the six prizes, Economics is announced on the Monday of the second week, after Medicine (5 Oct), Physics (6 Oct), Chemistry (7 Oct), Literature (8 Oct), and Peace (9 Oct).
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences will be announced on October 12, 2026, at 11:45 CEST. On prediction market Kalshi (kxnobelecon-26), Ariel Pakes (Harvard) leads with 23% — confirmed by Octagon AI (also 23%) — ahead of Richard Blundell (UCL, 16%) and Susan Athey (Stanford, 16%). The Kalshi market is very thin (~$1,625 in trading volume), so odds should be weighted qualitatively. Pakes is known for the 'BLP approach' (Berry-Levinsohn-Pakes, 1995), which became the standard method for structural estimation in industrial organization with broad empirical application in antitrust law, competition policy, and consumer protection. Other candidates: Partha Dasgupta (Cambridge, environmental economics), Luigi Zingales (Chicago, corporate finance), Philippe Aghion (Harvard, growth theory). Kalshi sees 23% for Pakes; this prediction anchors to the market and sets probability conservatively at 20%, as Nobel committees historically diverge significantly from market favorites.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Kalshi rates Susan Athey at approximately 30% as the clear single favorite — no other candidate exceeds 25% (Ariel Pakes: ~21–25%, Partha Dasgupta: ~14%; source: Kalshi, OctagonAI, Next.io, as of October 3, 2026). Athey is a pioneer in applying game theory, market design, and machine learning to digital platform economics; her John Bates Clark Award (2007) and auction mechanism research support her candidacy. The field remains wide open: prediction markets show low trading volume and no clearly dominant profile. We adopt the Kalshi market anchor of ~30% unchanged.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Copper was trading at approximately 6.52–6.54 USD/lb on October 2, 2026. The threshold of 6.35 USD represents a decline of about 2.6% from the day's level — historically a raised bar for a one-week span. Supporting factors: strong Chinese demand signals (Caixin Services PMI September expected >51.5; China Q3 GDP expected >4.5% — both data points due this week and likely to support copper). Opposing factors: September NFP well below 150,000 (released October 2) signals US economic softness; strong USD (USD/JPY >159) additionally dampens commodity prices. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi market found for COMEX copper; calibration based on spot price and macroeconomic balance.