US Federal Funds Rate stands at at least 4.00–4.25% on December 31, 2026 (at least two further 25-bp hikes from September 10, 2026 level, confirmed by Fed press releases or Bloomberg by December 31, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 10. September 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Current policy rate: 3.50–3.75% (September 10, 2026). Polymarket shows ~53% probability for a 25-bp hike at the September 16 FOMC; Kalshi confirms ~54.5%. Reaching ≥4.00–4.25% by year-end requires at least two hikes (September + November or September + December). Drivers: August payrolls +162,000 (above expectations), headline CPI >3.2% YoY (open prediction), three dissents in favour of hiking at the July meeting, hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Counterargument: CME futures price only ~32% for a September hike (significant divergence from prediction markets). Probability for ≥4.00–4.25% at EOY: ~30–34%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Fed rate hike September 2026 – ca. 53 % (Stand 10.09.2026)
- Kalshi: Fed rate decision 16. September 2026 – 54,5 % Anhebung (Stand 10.09.2026)
- KuCoin/Polymarket-Analyse: Polymarket 53 % vs. CME Futures 32 % – signifikante Divergenz (Stand 10.09.2026)
- CNBC/Yahoo Finance: Fed Chair Warsh hawkish signals, August jobs +162.000, CPI über 3 % (Stand 09.09.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.