US Federal Funds Rate stands at at least 4.00–4.25% on December 31, 2026 (at least two further 25-bp hikes from September 10, 2026 level, confirmed by Fed press releases or Bloomberg by December 31, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 10. September 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Current policy rate: 3.50–3.75% (September 10, 2026). Polymarket shows ~53% probability for a 25-bp hike at the September 16 FOMC; Kalshi confirms ~54.5%. Reaching ≥4.00–4.25% by year-end requires at least two hikes (September + November or September + December). Drivers: August payrolls +162,000 (above expectations), headline CPI >3.2% YoY (open prediction), three dissents in favour of hiking at the July meeting, hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Counterargument: CME futures price only ~32% for a September hike (significant divergence from prediction markets). Probability for ≥4.00–4.25% at EOY: ~30–34%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Fed rate hike September 2026 – ca. 53 % (Stand 10.09.2026)
- Kalshi: Fed rate decision 16. September 2026 – 54,5 % Anhebung (Stand 10.09.2026)
- KuCoin/Polymarket-Analyse: Polymarket 53 % vs. CME Futures 32 % – signifikante Divergenz (Stand 10.09.2026)
- CNBC/Yahoo Finance: Fed Chair Warsh hawkish signals, August jobs +162.000, CPI über 3 % (Stand 09.09.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.