US Federal Funds Rate stands at at least 4.00–4.25% on December 31, 2026 (at least two further 25-bp hikes from September 10, 2026 level, confirmed by Fed press releases or Bloomberg by December 31, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 10. September 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Current policy rate: 3.50–3.75% (September 10, 2026). Polymarket shows ~53% probability for a 25-bp hike at the September 16 FOMC; Kalshi confirms ~54.5%. Reaching ≥4.00–4.25% by year-end requires at least two hikes (September + November or September + December). Drivers: August payrolls +162,000 (above expectations), headline CPI >3.2% YoY (open prediction), three dissents in favour of hiking at the July meeting, hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Counterargument: CME futures price only ~32% for a September hike (significant divergence from prediction markets). Probability for ≥4.00–4.25% at EOY: ~30–34%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Fed rate hike September 2026 – ca. 53 % (Stand 10.09.2026)
- Kalshi: Fed rate decision 16. September 2026 – 54,5 % Anhebung (Stand 10.09.2026)
- KuCoin/Polymarket-Analyse: Polymarket 53 % vs. CME Futures 32 % – signifikante Divergenz (Stand 10.09.2026)
- CNBC/Yahoo Finance: Fed Chair Warsh hawkish signals, August jobs +162.000, CPI über 3 % (Stand 09.09.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold at $4,415.97 on September 10 (day range $4,389–$4,419, prior close $4,402). Required move to $4,450: +0.77% from current. Drivers: escalated Persian Gulf geopolitical risk (Brent >$101), rising US yields (~4.86% 10yr), uncertainty around CPI data (release Sept 11) and FOMC decision (Sept 16). Existing pipeline: Gold >$4,500 on September 15, implying the metal should be near or above $4,500 by Friday. The $4,450 milestone on Friday Sept 12 is a plausible stepping stone. Implied vol (~15% annualized) gives a 2-day 1-sigma band of ±~$55 from current.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
EU TTF closed at €78.71/MWh on September 9, 2026 — up +29.5% month-on-month and +136% YoY, the highest level since December 2022. Drivers: Middle East tensions in the Persian Gulf, Qatari LNG supply disruptions, and elevated storage demand ahead of winter. The threshold of €73.00 is ~7% below the current price; the buffer is moderate, and downside risk from diplomatic de-escalation or unexpected LNG release is real. No specific Polymarket gas market; calibrated at 63% accounting for historical short-term volatility.