The White House confirmed to NBC News on July 11, 2026 that President Trump will allow the bipartisan housing affordability bill to become law tomorrow without his signature. Trump used it as leverage for an election overhaul bill that lacks congressional support. With the deadline expiring, the bill becomes law automatically. Source: NBC News, July 11, 2026.
The S&P 500 currently trades at ~7,543 points (July 9-10). Polymarket gives a 62% probability that SPY hits $760 (≈ S&P 7,600) at any point in July. For the specific July 18 close – start of US earnings season (Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet in week 30) and one week before the ECB decision – the probability is estimated at a slightly more conservative 57%. Source: Polymarket Finance, Yahoo Finance, as of July 10, 2026.
The ECB raised the deposit facility rate to 2.25% on June 11, 2026 (source: ecb.mp260611). The July 23 meeting is the first reassessment – without new staff projections (non-projection meeting). ECB-Watch and Kalshi show an implied market probability of approximately 90% for unchanged rates. Two more weeks of inflation and activity data will arrive before the meeting but are not expected to prompt a dramatic course correction.
Pogačar leads the GC after stage 6 by 2:42 over Jonas Vingegaard (Visma–Lease a Bike), followed by Isaac del Toro (+3:27) and Remco Evenepoel (+3:30). After attacking on the Col du Tourmalet, he has clearly distanced his main rivals. As a three-time Tour winner (2020, 2024, 2025) with UAE Team Emirates as strong support, he is the dominant favorite. 15 stages remain until Paris (July 26). Source: CyclingNews / Olympics.com.
Polymarket gives an 82% probability that Nvidia holds the largest market capitalization of any listed company at end of July 2026 (Apple as closest challenger at 11%). Nvidia stock at ~$202.80 (July 9). Late July earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet – strong AI capex guidance – directly support Nvidia chip demand. Source: Polymarket Stocks, Goldman Sachs / TradingKey, as of July 10, 2026.
Polymarket gives Republicans 57.5% and Kalshi ~52% odds to retain the Senate majority. Despite rising disapproval over Trump's economic policy and the war in Iran, Democrats face a difficult map: of 34 seats up for election, many are in Republican-leaning terrain. CNN identifies 9 likely flip seats – Democrats would need nearly all of them. Market average: ~55% for Republicans. Source: Polymarket / Kalshi / Decrypt, as of July 2026.
The Fed kept rates unchanged at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is a confirmed hawk and has not signaled any rate cut without a sustained decline in inflation. The July meeting (July 29) will be held without new economic projections – not a typical time for policy changes. Despite pressure from President Trump, market expectations per LBBW analysis are clearly aligned with unchanged rates.
The EU Parliament passed the Chat Control regulation on July 9, 2026 via fast-track procedure (414 vs. 224 votes). However, entry into force requires a qualified majority in the EU Council. Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and Finland have blocked the measure for years due to data protection and encryption concerns. All previous Chat Control drafts (2022, 2023, 2024) failed in the Council – the pattern continues.
Nvidia trades at ~€176 on July 11, 2026, approximately 13% below its 52-week high of €202.50 (May 14, 2026). Corporate insiders are buying at record levels since data collection began. AI infrastructure demand remains structurally intact (Datacenter revenues Q1 2026 +78% YoY). For H2 2026, Blackwell Ultra and Rubin chip architectures are expected, likely triggering new demand waves. A return above the 52-week high by year end is well within reach.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,575 points on July 10, 2026. A rise to 8,000 represents +5.6% – moderate compared to historical annual returns. Q2 2026 earnings season (starting mid-July) carries consensus expectations of +8% YoY; strong tech earnings and a potential Fed cut in autumn (if inflation falls) would drive the index. Q4 is seasonally the strongest quarter. Key risks: recession signals, Middle East escalation, or trade war escalation.
Argentina enters as defending champions (2022 WC) against Switzerland (July 12, Kansas City). Argentina has won all 3 previous World Cup matches against Switzerland and defeated all KO-phase opponents comfortably in this tournament. Switzerland reached the quarterfinal as underdogs without a world-class star player. Betting markets price Argentina as clear favorites at ~1.60.
Spain (Euro 2024 champion) beat Belgium 2-1 in the quarterfinal and shows the most consistent collective football of the tournament (Pedri, Gavi, Yamal). France beat Morocco 2-0 but shows inconsistency and relies heavily on individual moments from Mbappé. Spain's tactical discipline and pressing intensity were already considered difficult to overcome at Euro 2024. Betting odds favor Spain at ~1.90.
If Argentina beats Switzerland (July 12), the defending champions face the winner of Norway–England on July 15. Norway has been a tournament surprise team but lacks experience at this level. England qualified through Euro rounds without struggle but narrowly advanced in the WM group stage. Argentina with Martínez, Álvarez and De Paul is favored against either opponent (betting odds ~1.75).