Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) misses Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus of $0.45 per share — earnings report October 21, 2026 after market close (confirmed by Tesla Investor Relations or Bloomberg by October 22, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. October 2026
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Predicted for 21. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Tesla reports Q3-FY2026 earnings on October 21, 2026 after market close; analyst consensus per MarketBeat: $0.45 EPS (revenue ~$27.93B). Tesla beat EPS consensus in only 4 of its last 8 quarters; Q2 FY2026 was a heavy miss ($0.33 actual vs. ~$0.50 estimate, −34%). WTI crude near $98.50/bbl and the US 10-yr yield at 5.14% structurally weigh on EV demand and financing costs. No direct Tesla earnings market found on Polymarket/Kalshi; TSLA rose +3.76% to $368.06 on Oct 20 — possibly pricing in optimism that would unwind on a miss. The 54% miss probability reflects the historical beat rate (50%) and the weak Q2.
Data basis for this prediction
- MarketBeat: Tesla Q3 FY2026 EPS-Konsens 0,45 USD / Umsatzkonsens 27,93 Mrd. USD (Stand 20.10.2026)
- TSLA-Kurs 20.10.2026: 368,06 USD +3,76% (FinancialContent / MarketBeat)
- Tesla Q2 FY2026: 0,33 USD EPS actual vs. ~0,50 USD Konsens (GuruFocus, 20.10.2026)
- US 10-jährige Rendite 5,14% / WTI ~98,50 USD (NordFX Market Pulse, 20.10.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin trades at ~$82,000 on October 20, 2026 (+1.1% daily, market cap ~$1.64T). Kalshi prediction markets: BTC above $87,500 in October 2026 = 72%; BTC above $90,000 = 56%. This implies ~79% probability for the lower $85,000 threshold (gap from spot: ~3.7%). Kalshi assigns 72% to a level already 3% above this threshold — making $85,000 highly probable. Headwinds: US 10-yr yield 5.14% and stronger dollar (EUR/USD 1.1211). With eleven trading days remaining in October, a daily close above $85,000 is statistically well-supported.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
S&P Global releases the Eurozone Flash Composite PMI for October 2026 on October 23. September reading: 53.1; analyst consensus for October is ~52.3 (fx.co, Investing.com). The 52.5 threshold sits between the consensus (52.3) and the prior month (53.1). Ongoing manufacturing contraction (below 50), easing services momentum ahead of the October 29 ECB meeting, and subdued consumer demand in France and Germany support moderate cooling. No direct Polymarket market; implied probability based on normal distribution around consensus (µ=52.3, σ≈0.5) is ~63%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Visa reports Q4 FY2026 results (fiscal year ends September) on October 27, 2026 after market close. MarketBeat consensus: EPS $3.43, revenue ~$12.08B. Visa has consistently beaten EPS consensus in recent quarters (beat rate ~80–90%). In the immediately prior quarter (Q3 FY2026), Visa delivered EPS $3.32 vs. consensus $3.22 (+3.1% beat). Structural growth drivers: global payment volumes +7–9% YoY, cross-border transactions +11%, stable free cash flow. No direct Polymarket market; historical beat rate implies ~72%.