The 22-year-old Mexican del Toro leads the Young Rider classification as GC 3rd (+3:27 to PogaΔar). His nearest rival is Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek, GC 5th, +3:34). Del Toro has UAE Team XRG support, won Stage 2, and was in the decisive groups in the mountains. Remaining mountain stages to Paris (finale ~July 26) should preserve his lead.
Apple has announced Q3-FY2026 results for July 30, 2026 after market close. Analyst consensus: $1.88 adjusted EPS (diluted), +19.8% YoY (from $1.57). Apple has beaten Wall Street EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters. Strong Services growth, growing Apple Intelligence adoption post-iOS/macOS 27 (WWDC June 2026), and solid iPhone volumes support expectations. Headwinds from US tariffs on China manufacturing and elevated inflation (CPI 4.2% YoY). Own calibration: ~73%.
MacRumors, Engadget, and Macworld report based on supply chain analysis and analyst notes that Apple will unveil a foldable iPhone (iPhone Fold) alongside the iPhone 18 Pro at a September 2026 special event. Apple has reportedly secured production for this form factor; September is Apple's traditional hardware keynote slot. Risk factors: production ramp-up issues, possible delay to Spring 2027. No prediction market anchor identified; estimate based on media reports and Apple's historical product cycle: ~62%.
Polymarket assigns 91% probability to 'no change' at the ECB's July 23 meeting; ECB-Watch.eu confirms ~90% implied hold probability. The ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.25% on June 11, 2026 (first hike since 2023, responding to the Iran oil shock). July is not a projections meeting β updated ECB staff forecasts come only in September. An existing Cassandra forecast already predicts a further hike to 2.50% at the September meeting. Polymarket sees 91% for unchanged rate.
SAP SE (NYSE: SAP) reports Q2 2026 on July 23 at 10:05 PM CEST. EPS consensus: AltIndex $1.94, ChartMill $1.81 (midpoint ~$1.87); revenue consensus $9.95bn. Ad-hoc-News: 'SAP edges higher ahead of July earnings. Analyst consensus stays constructive.' Risk: management flagged 'expected deceleration of cloud revenue growth in Q2.' SAP benefits from AI integration momentum in its Business AI Platform and has beaten consensus in most quarters since 2024.
Nvidia reports Q2 FY2027 results on August 25, 2026 (after close). EPS consensus: ~USD 2.10 (TipRanks, Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, as of July 2026). Nvidia guided Q2 revenue of $91B Β±2% and 75% gross margin. China data-center revenue is excluded from guidance β a potential upside surprise. Historically Nvidia beats the EPS consensus in >90% of quarters, often materially (WallStreetZen). No Polymarket market found; own assessment based on historical beat rate: 82%.
Google has already made Gemini 3.5 Flash generally available (Google Blog, July 2026). Gemini 3.5 Pro was listed as 'coming soon' in the API as of July 7, 2026 (Coursiv / Google AI Studio). Historical pattern: Flash always precedes Pro by ~3β6 weeks (Gemini 1.5 Flash May 2024 β Pro June 2024; Gemini 2.5 Flash April 2026 β Pro May 2026). With Flash reaching GA in early July, a Pro launch before July 31 is implied. Risk: quality hurdles or strategic delay could shift launch to August. Implied probability: 55%.
KCU26 closed at 330.55 US cents/lb on July 9, 2026, and dropped β3.92% to ~317 cents on July 10 (Barchart/Yahoo Finance). The existing Cassandra prediction for July 18 sets the threshold at 305 cents. Track record: the 325-cent forecast for July 12 was a miss. For July 31, a level above 300 cents is still plausible: Brazil's frost-risk season (July/August) and Vietnamese Robusta supply deficits structurally support Arabica prices. A further ~β6% decline would be needed for a miss. Implied probability: 65%.
EU Council adopted the Digital Omnibus on June 29, 2026 (Parliament: June 16). OJ publication is the final step. The amendment postpones Annex III high-risk AI obligations from August 2, 2026 to December 2, 2027 β requiring OJ publication BEFORE August 2. Historical OJ timeline: 2β4 weeks post-Council β publication by ~July 27, well ahead of the deadline. Strong institutional incentive. Probability: 84%.
The Bank of England stabilized its base rate at 3.75% after a 2025 easing cycle. As of July 2, 2026, financial markets expected a hold for the remainder of 2026. UK CPI stood at 2.8% in May 2026 β above the 2% target, making further easing unlikely. The recently signed US-Iran peace deal reduces oil price pressure. The July 30 MPC meeting includes the Quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Market-implied hold probability: ~85%; own calibration: 84%.
Amazon has beaten the adjusted EPS consensus in eight or more consecutive quarters. For Q2 2026, consensus expects $1.82 per share (+8.3% vs. $1.68 in Q2 2025) on revenue of $196.02B. AWS remains the key driver thanks to generative AI workloads. Management guidance tends to be conservative, supporting beats. Historical beat rate >80%; own calibration: 76%.
Palantir beat the Q1 2026 adjusted EPS consensus by 17.8% ($0.33 vs. $0.28). For Q2, the consensus stands at $0.35 (adj.), and Palantir's own revenue guidance ($1.797β1.801B) already exceeds the analyst consensus ($1.7B) β a strong signal for another beat. The Nvidia AI partnership (as of July 1, 2026) and booming U.S. government AI revenue (+104% U.S. revenue YoY in Q1) provide further momentum. Reporting date: approximately August 3β4, 2026. Probability: 73%.
The National Electoral Jury (JNE) declared Fujimori the winner on July 3, 2026 with 50.1% of votes (~50,000 margin). Transition office opened. Argentine President Milei announced he will attend. Legal challenge deadlines have passed; no pending claims that could block handover on July 28 β Peru's Independence Day and traditional inauguration date. No Polymarket market found; probability of occurrence very high based on public sources.