Sunday, 31. January 2027

🍾 Beverages ✦ AI

CIVC: Total global Champagne shipments in 2026 remain below 260 million bottles

Global Champagne shipments fell to 266 million bottles in 2025 (–2% vs 271.4 million in 2024; source: The Drinks Business, Jan. 2026), continuing the decline from the 2021 record of 322 million. Q1 2026 shows a further –0.5% YoY decline in the French domestic market. Reaching below 260 million bottles would require an additional –2.3% decline — consistent with the current trend pace. Headwinds include inflation-driven consumer caution, normalization after post-pandemic revenge spending, and competition from Prosecco and Crémant. CIVC typically publishes annual data in January of the following year. No Polymarket market.

55%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Jan 2027

🍾 Beverages ✦ AI

Diageo plc (LSE: DGE) reports organic net revenue decline in the total spirits business year-on-year in its H1 FY2027 interim report (July–December 2026, publication ca. end January 2027, confirmed by Diageo press release or Bloomberg by January 31, 2027)

Diageo (Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Guinness, Don Julio) already suffered organic revenue declines in FY2024 and FY2025 — structural headwinds from a premiumisation pause, fading post-COVID demand, declining spirits consumption in Latin America, and weakness in China. Brown-Forman (Jack Daniel's) also reported organic decline for Q1 FY2027 (May–July 2026) per open prediction. For H1 FY2027 (July–December 2026), additional pressures include: a strong USD following the Fed hike cycle (4.00% fed funds rate from September 2026) and dampened premium spirits demand from the oil price shock (Brent $97). FactSet analyst consensus August 2026: +0.5% organic — close to zero and within the margin of error for a decline.

53%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Jan 2027