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Monday, 17. August 2026

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📈 Economy Hit ✦ AI

FDA approves iberdomide (Bristol Myers Squibb, NYSE: BMY) for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma by PDUFA date August 17, 2026

The PDUFA date for iberdomide (combination with daratumumab + dexamethasone, EXCALIBER-RRMM Phase 3 study) is August 17, 2026. BMS received both Breakthrough Therapy and Priority Review designation – both signals of strong regulatory support. The FDA historically approves ~83–87% of applications reaching a PDUFA date; with Breakthrough Therapy designation the rate is even higher (>90%). No negative Advisory Committee signal is known. Cassandra estimates the approval probability at 78% (slight discount vs historical average for a complex combination therapy).

78%
Next Month · Predicted for 17. Aug 2026
🏛️ Politics Hit ✦ AI

US and Iran fail to reach a final nuclear agreement by August 17, 2026 — 60-day MOU negotiation window closes without a deal

The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed around June 17, 2026 (CNN, Axios, CSIS) and sets a 60-day window for final nuclear negotiations (deadline: ~August 17, 2026). Key outstanding disputes per Al Jazeera (June 23, 2026): uranium enrichment limits, status of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, IAEA verification, sanctions architecture. Historical precedent: JCPOA negotiations 2013–2015 lasted >22 months. Polymarket priced the MOU completion near 100% — this refers to the MOU itself, not a final agreement, which is a significantly higher bar. Most likely scenario: no deal within the deadline, but continuation of talks.

72%
Next Month · Predicted for 17. Aug 2026