xAI (Elon Musk) releases Grok 4 as a publicly accessible model via the xAI API by August 31, 2026 (confirmed by xAI press release or availability at api.x.ai)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. August 2026
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Based on: Speculative
xAI released Grok 3 in February 2025. Leading AI labs (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google) typically ship new generations 9–15 months apart, placing Grok 4 most plausibly in the November 2025–May 2026 window — or if delayed, summer/fall 2026. xAI has recently expanded the Colossus cluster to 200,000 H100 GPUs. Elon Musk has publicly committed to making Grok the world's most intelligent AI. EU AI Act (high-risk obligations from August 2, 2026) may influence timing. No Polymarket/Kalshi market for Grok 4 release found; estimate based on development cadence and public xAI statements. Counterargument: xAI announces releases with little notice — delays to September–October 2026 possible.
Data basis for this prediction
- xAI – Grok 3 Launch (Februar 2025): Basis für Entwicklungsrhythmus (12–18 Monate bis Grok 4)
- xAI Engineering Blog – Colossus-Cluster: 200.000 H100-GPUs, 2025–2026
- EU AI Act – Hochrisiko-KI-Pflichten (Art. 9–17) in Kraft ab 2. August 2026 (Amtsblatt EU)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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💻 Technology
✦ AI
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