📈 Economy · Next Week

WTI crude oil (NYMEX, front-month) closes above USD 90.00 per barrel on July 31, 2026 (confirmed by NYMEX closing price)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

56%

WTI crude traded at $87.88/barrel on July 24, 2026; a $2.12 rise to July 31 is needed. Brent stands concurrently at $100.40 (first triple-digit close in two months) — driven by Iranian attacks on supertankers (Achelous + Dynacom tanker, Bloomberg July 20) and continued Houthi escalation in the Red Sea. The unusually wide WTI/Brent spread of ~$12.50 (historically $3–7) may narrow via US crude inventory drawdowns and normalizing export pressure. FOMC meeting on July 29 could modestly weaken the USD — supportive for oil prices.

Data basis for this prediction

WTI Spot: 87,88 USD/bbl (Forbes Advisor, 24.7.2026)
Brent Spot: 100,40 USD/bbl — dreistellig erstmals seit 2 Monaten (Bloomberg, 23.7.2026)
Iran greift Supertanker Acheloos + Dynacom-Tanker in Straße von Hormuz an (Bloomberg, 20.7.2026)
WTI/Brent-Spread: ~12,50 USD (historischer Schnitt 3–7 USD; eigene Berechnung 24.7.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

WTI-Rohöl schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei 84,67 USD/Barrel (Quelle: Investing.com Historical Data) — deutlich unter der Schwelle von 90,00 USD. Die Preisentwicklung in der Woche verlief sogar gegenläufig zur Prognose: Nach einem Hoch von 87,01 USD am 23. Juli fiel WTI bis auf 79,26 USD am 28. Juli, bevor es sich zum Monatsende leicht auf 84,67 USD erholte. Der EIA-Monatsdurchschnitt für Juli 2026 lag bei ca. 80,46 USD/Barrel. Das angenommene Szenario — Verengung des WTI/Brent-Spreads, USD-Schwäche nach FOMC, Eskalationsprämie durch Houthi/Iran-Spannungen — reichte nicht aus, um WTI über 90 USD zu treiben. Die Prognose verfehlte das Ziel um ca. 5,33 USD.

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