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World Athletics Ultimate Championship Budapest 2026: Karsten Warholm (NOR) wins the Men's 400m Hurdles Final (September 12, 2026, confirmed by World Athletics by September 13, 2026)
Probability
74%
Karsten Warholm (Norway) holds the world record in the men's 400m hurdles (45.94s, Tokyo 2021) and is the dominant athlete in this event. In 2026, he won his fourth consecutive European title at the Birmingham European Athletics Championships in championship record time (46.63s). His strongest rivals are Alison dos Santos (BRA) and Rai Benjamin (USA), who have rarely seriously challenged him recently. The men's 400m hurdles final is scheduled for September 12, 2026, at the Gyula Zsivotzky National Athletics Centre in Budapest. No direct prediction market available; calibration based on Warholm's historical dominance (~75–80% win rate in world-class finals since 2021).
Data basis for this prediction
- European Athletics Championships Birmingham 2026: Warholm 4. Europameistertitel in Folge, CR 46,63 s (olympics.com)
- worldathletics.org Athlete Profile Warholm: WR 45,94 s (Tokio 2021); mehrfacher Weltmeister und Olympiasieger
- WAUC Budapest 2026 Schedule (khelnow.com): Men's 400m Hurdles Final, 12. September 2026
- Athletics Illustrated WAUC Preview (Sept 10, 2026): Warholm als klarer Topfavorit
Verdict: Miss
Karsten Warholm gewann das 400-m-Hürden-Finale der Männer bei den World Athletics Ultimate Championships in Budapest (12. September 2026) NICHT. Er belegte mit 46,78 s den dritten Platz. Sieger wurde Alison dos Santos (Brasilien) in 45,98 s, Zweiter Rai Benjamin (USA) in 46,40 s. Dos Santos hatte kurz vor dem Wettkampf bei der Diamond League in Zürich Warholms Weltrekord (45,94 s) auf 45,80 s verbessert und trat damit als neuer Weltrekordhalter an. Quelle: World Athletics Official Race Report – https://worldathletics.org/competitions/world-athletics-ultimate-championship/2026/news/report/report-men-400m-hurdles-world-ultimate-championship-budapest-26