⚽ Sports
· Next Week
World Athletics Ultimate Championship Budapest 2026: Armand Duplantis (SWE) sets a new world record in the men's pole vault final (September 11, 2026, confirmed by World Athletics by September 12, 2026)
Probability
38%
Duplantis has set a world record at seven of his last eight major events (Worlds, Europeans, Olympics, Diamond League Finals). Current WR: 6.26m (Gothenburg, February 2026). The Ultimate Championship offers a $150,000 world record bonus — a strong financial incentive for the attempt. The final format (no qualifying rounds) conserves energy. The open prediction 'Duplantis wins' is fully compatible. No Polymarket market; historical WR rate at major events yields ~38%. Main risk: poor competition form or a decision not to attempt the WR.
Data basis for this prediction
- World Athletics: 2026 Ultimate Championship – $150.000 World Record Bonus bestätigt; 28-Event-Format (09.09.2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 World Athletics Ultimate Championship – Stabhochsprung-Finale Tag 1 (11.09.2026)
- Olympics.com: 2026 Ultimate Championship Schedule – Duplantis als Headliner des Eröffnungsabends
Verdict: Miss
Duplantis gewann das Stabhochsprung-Finale bei den World Athletics Ultimate Championships in Budapest am 11. September 2026 mit 6,20 m, stellte jedoch keinen Weltrekord auf. Er versuchte anschließend 6,32 m (was Weltrekord gewesen wäre), scheiterte aber an allen drei Versuchen. Der aktuelle Weltrekord (6,26 m aus Göteborg, Februar 2026) blieb damit unangetastet. Quellen: World Athletics Offizieller Bericht (worldathletics.org/competitions/world-athletics-ultimate-championship/2026/news/report/report-men-pole-vault-world-ultimate-championship-budapest-26), FloTrack, NBC Sports.