⚽ Sports · Next Week

World Athletics Budapest 2026: Karsten Warholm (NOR) wins Men's 400m Hurdles Final (September 13, 2026, confirmed by World Athletics by September 13, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 7. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

50%

Karsten Warholm is in dominant 2026 form: won the London Diamond League (46.61s, world-leading time at that point) and gold at the European Athletics Championships in Birmingham (46.63s, championship record, his fourth continental title). Three qualifiers contest in Budapest: Warholm (2025 World Champion per World Athletics feature), Rai Benjamin (USA, Paris 2024 Olympic champion, 46.46s) and Alison dos Santos (BRA, won Oslo DL in 46.89s ahead of Warholm's 47.40s). No Polymarket market available; bookmakers imply Warholm as favorite (~48–52%) based on superior 2026 form. Key risk: Benjamin is reigning Olympic champion, dos Santos showed surprise strength.

Data basis for this prediction

World Athletics / Olympics.com: Warholm gewinnt Europameisterschaften Birmingham 2026 in 46,63 s (Meisterschaftsrekord)
FloTrack / Olympics.com: Warholm London DL 2026, Sieg in 46,61 s (Weltjahresbestleistung)
Olympics.com Oslo DL 2026: dos Santos 46,89 s, Warholm 2. in 47,40 s
Buchmacherquoten aggregiert (Stand 7. Sep 2026): implizieren ~50 % für Warholm-Sieg

Verdict: Miss

Warholm gewann das 400-m-Hürden-Finale NICHT. Alison dos Santos (BRA) siegte in 45,98 s (Weltrekord), gefolgt von Rai Benjamin (USA, 46,40 s). Warholm belegte Platz 3 in 46,78 s. Dos Santos, der laut Vorhersage als 'überraschend stark' eingestufte Außenseiter, dominierte das Rennen deutlich. Quelle: World Athletics Official Report – https://worldathletics.org/competitions/world-athletics-ultimate-championship/2026/news/report/report-men-400m-hurdles-world-ultimate-championship-budapest-26 sowie FloTrack – https://www.flotrack.org/articles/16181040-alison-dos-santos-wins-400m-hurdles-at-2026-world-ultimate

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