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WM Semifinal France–Spain (July 14, AT&T Stadium Dallas): At Least 3 Goals in the Match (incl. Extra Time)
Probability
45%
France and Spain meet in the first semifinal at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. Both teams have shown strong attacking quality: France with Mbappé (Golden Boot contender) and Dembélé, Spain with Morata, Yamal and Pedri. However, semifinal matches in this WM cycle have shown elevated defensive discipline. Existing Cassandra markets already cover France's halftime lead, Mbappé's goal and Spain scoring — together implying a goal-rich game, but not explicitly the 3+ threshold. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi markets found for this match; aggregated bookmaker over/under lines for WM knockout matches at this level historically imply ~44–47% for 3+ goals.
Data basis for this prediction
- NBC Sports – WM 2026 Semifinal pairings & venues (13.07.2026)
- Olympics.com – FIFA WM 2026 Bracket & Schedule (13.07.2026)
- CBS Sports – WM 2026 Semifinal Preview France vs. Spain (13.07.2026)
- Aggregierte Buchmacherquoten via Oddschecker: Over 2.5 Goals impliziert ~44–47 % (13.07.2026)
Verdict: Miss
Das Spiel endete 2:0 für Spanien (Oyarzabal 22' Elfmeter, Porro 58') – nur 2 Tore, keine Verlängerung. Die Schwelle von mindestens 3 Toren wurde verfehlt. Spanien gewann klar und kontrolliert, Frankreich blieb ohne Torerfolg. Quellen: ESPN (france-0-2-spain), FIFA.com, NBC News, NPR.