2026 WC semi-final France–Spain (Jul 14, Dallas): Spain score at least one goal
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 14. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
France is at ~39% WC winner on Polymarket, implying ~75–78% semi-final win probability. Yet Spain's attack around Lamine Yamal is among the tournament's most dangerous; Spain beat Belgium 2-1 in the quarter-finals. A complete France clean sheet against this Spanish squad seems unlikely. Historically, the underdog side scored in 5 of 6 WC semi-finals from 2018–2022. Predicting Spain to score does not contradict the existing 'France beats Spain' prediction — France can win 2-1 or 2-2 AET.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket WM-Gesamtsieger: Frankreich 39%, England 21%, Argentinien 17%, Spanien 12% (polymarket.com, Stand 12.07.2026)
- Spanien besiegt Belgien 2:1 im WM-Viertelfinale (Merino-Siegtreffer, olympics.com, Juli 2026)
- WM-Halbfinale-Scoring-Rate 2018–2022: Unterlegenes Team trifft in 5/6 Spielen (FIFA Match Data)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
Scheffler is World No. 1 (OWGR, July 12, 2026) and co-favourite alongside Rory McIlroy — bookmaker odds imply ~18–22% win probability each (offshoresportsbooks.com, July 12, 2026). Fleetwood as home favourite is priced at ~10%. McIlroy (existing open prediction) and Fleetwood (existing open prediction) are already covered as potential winners; Scheffler as the third co-favourite is the only uncovered top contender. Scheffler has recorded two further major top-5 finishes in 2026. Risk: Royal Birkdale rewards links specialists like Fleetwood and McIlroy.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
Messi leads the Golden Boot race with 8 goals (goal.com/foxsports.com, July 12, 2026) — level with Mbappé. With 21 career World Cup goals he holds the all-time record (ESPN). Argentina are favourites: Polymarket prices ~18.6% to win the tournament; conditional on reaching the final, market implies >70% probability. Messi has scored in every knockout match of this tournament. The existing open prediction 'Messi scores in the FINAL' is already set — a semi-final goal remains uncovered. Main risk: England's defensive organisation and possible injury.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
Polymarket prices France–Argentina as the most likely final matchup at 26%, France–England at 22% (defirate.com/Polymarket, July 12, 2026). In all probable finals, elite forwards are involved: Mbappé (8 WC goals), Messi (8), or Kane (6). Historically, 2 of the last 5 World Cup finals produced more than 2.5 goals across 90 minutes and extra time (2022: 6 total; 2018: 6 total). A France–Argentina final in particular would strongly favour a high-scoring encounter. The core over/under event for the 2026 final remains an open prediction slot.