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📈 Economy · Next Month

Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) beats Q2 FY2027 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of $0.75 per share on August 20, 2026 (pre-market, confirmed by Walmart press release)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. July 2026 · Predicted for 20. August 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern
Probability
55%

Walmart reports Q2 FY2027 results (May–July 2026 period) on August 20, 2026 (pre-market). Analyst consensus: $0.75 EPS. Walmart's own Q2 guidance was $0.720–$0.740, so consensus already prices in a ~$0.01–$0.03 beat above guidance. Consumer backdrop was robust: UK Retail Sales June +1.0% MoM (ONS); US consumer spending stable. Walmart benefits structurally from Walmart+ subscriptions, Walmart Connect advertising, and resilient grocery. Risk: margin pressure from new Section 301 import tariffs (July 2026).

Data basis for this prediction
  • DailyPolitical.com: 'Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) Updates Q2 2027 Earnings Guidance — $0.720–$0.740 EPS guidance, report date August 20, 2026' (Mai 2026)
  • Analyst consensus EPS für Q2 FY2027: 0,75 USD (FactSet/Zacks, Stand Juli 2026)
  • ONS UK Retail Sales Juni 2026: +1,0 % MoM (veröffentlicht 24. Juli 2026) — Proxy für Konsumentenstärke

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit
Walmart berichtete am 20. August 2026 für Q2 FY2027 ein bereinigtes Non-GAAP-EPS von 0,81 USD – deutlich über dem Konsens von 0,75 USD (und sogar über der höheren Schätzung von ~0,74 USD lt. einigen Quellen). Die Vorhersage trat klar ein. Treiber des Beats waren jedoch weniger das organische Retail-Momentum, sondern v.a. Zollrückerstattungen (Section 301-Tariff Refunds), die die Bruttomarge stark aufbläuten, sowie Wachstum bei eCommerce (+23 %), Werbeumsätzen (+38 %) und Mitgliedschaften (+17 %). Walmart hob zudem den Jahresausblick an. Die Aktie fiel trotzdem ca. 9 %, da der Markt die Qualität des Beats (einmalige Zolleffekte, schwache US-Store-Comp-Sales) skeptisch bewertete. Quellen: [Chain Store Age](https://chainstoreage.com/walmart-beats-street-q2-eps-revenues-misses-us-comp-sales), [Investing.com Transcript](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-walmart-beats-q2-2026-forecasts-shares-sink-89-93CH-4870025), [TradingView/Zacks](https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:e3ad13fd9094b:0-walmart-q2-earnings-top-estimates-fiscal-2027-view-lifted/)
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S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

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Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

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