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Vuelta a España 2026: Primož Roglič (Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe, SLO) wins Stage 20 (La Calahorra – Collado del Alguacil, 12 September 2026, confirmed by UCI or lavuelta.es by 12 September 2026)
Probability
35%
Roglič is 1:37 behind Enric Mas in GC and must attack on the penultimate stage. The HC summit at Collado del Alguacil (8.3 km, 9.8% avg, 4,890m total climbing) is a steep short ramp – prime Roglič terrain. As the only GC rider with genuine motivation for a full attack, he is the most likely aggressor. Carapaz, Omrzel, and others may intervene via breakaway. No specific market consensus; estimate ~35% for Roglič based on course profile, GC deficit, and historical attack patterns at similar climbs.
Data basis for this prediction
- Vuelta 2026 GC nach Etappe 18-ITT: Mas führt, Roglič +1:37, Gall +3:01 (ciclo21.com / esciclismo.com, 10.09.2026)
- Stage 20 Profil: La Calahorra – Collado del Alguacil, 186,8 km, Sonderkat. 8,3 km @ 9,8% (lavuelta.es / procyclingstats.com)
- Stage 18 ITT-Sieger: Stefan Küng (Tudor); Roglič verlor 30 s auf Mas (esciclismo.com, 10.09.2026)
- CyclingUpToDate: Stage-19-20-Preview, Roglič als Hauptangreifer identifiziert (cyclinguptodate.com, 10.09.2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Primož Roglič gewann Etappe 20 der Vuelta 2026 NICHT. Sieger war Mikel Landa (ESP). Bestätigt durch PezCyclingNews, Cyclingnews und lavuelta.es.