⚽ Sports · Next Week

Vuelta a España 2026, Stage 11 (Cartagena → Lorca, 151.3 km, September 2, 2026): Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek, DEN) wins the stage (confirmed by official UCI result or lavuelta.es)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. August 2026 · Predicted for 2. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

34%

Stage 11 (Cartagena → Lorca, 151.3 km, September 2, 2026) is one of the flat sprint stages of the 2026 Vuelta with only one category-3 climb (Alto del Morrón, 4.2% avg gradient, 33.5 km from finish) – manageable for fast classics specialists. Since neither Tim Merlier nor Jasper Philipsen are at the 2026 Vuelta (team management cited it being too tough after the Tour), the main favorites according to cyclingstage.com and idlprocycling.com are: Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Wout van Aert (Visma–Lease a Bike, already won Stage 6), and Matthew Brennan (Visma). Pedersen, a two-time world champion and classics specialist, is ideal for such finishes. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi markets for individual stages; bookmaker aggregate favorite serves as anchor.

Data basis for this prediction

Vuelta 2026 Etappe 11: Cartagena → Lorca, 151,3 km, 2. September 2026, flach (lavuelta.es / cyclingstage.com)
Etappe-11-Favoriten: Pedersen, van Aert, Brennan – Merlier/Philipsen nicht im Rennen (cyclingstage.com / domestiquecycling.com / idlprocycling.com)
Wout van Aert: Etappensieg Vuelta 2026 Etappe 6, 27. August 2026 (UCI / lavuelta.es)
PCS Startliste Vuelta 2026: bestes Sprint-Feld ohne Merlier/Philipsen (procyclingstats.com, August 2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Etappe 11 der Vuelta 2026 (Cartagena → Lorca) wurde von Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) gewonnen, nicht von Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek). Quelle: granfondoguide.com.

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