⚽ Sports · Next Week

Vuelta a España 2026, Stage 11 (Cartagena → Lorca, 151.3 km, September 2, 2026): Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek, DEN) wins the stage (confirmed by official UCI result or lavuelta.es)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. August 2026 · Predicted for 2. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

28%

Stage 11 (Cartagena → Lorca, 151.3 km) is classified as a flat stage with just one categorized climb at km 117 followed by flat terrain – ideal for a bunch sprint finish. Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) is one of the strongest all-round sprinters in the peloton. In a typical bunch sprint against 5–7 rivals, Pedersen's individual win probability is approximately 28%.

Data basis for this prediction

Vuelta 2026 Stage 11: Cartagena → Lorca, 151,3 km, Flachetappe, 2. September 2026 (Wikipedia: 2026 Vuelta a España Stage 1 to Stage 11)
Stage-Klassifikation Etappe 11: flach, Sprint-Ausgang (cyclingnews.com/vuelta-a-espana-2026-route)
Pedersen 2026 Sprinterform und Vuelta-Teilnahme (procyclingstats.com)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Etappe 11 der Vuelta 2026 (Cartagena → Lorca) wurde von Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) gewonnen, nicht von Mads Pedersen. Pedersen erreichte lediglich dieselbe Zeit. Quelle: granfondoguide.com.

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