📈 Economy · Next Month

People's Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by at least 10 basis points by 20 August 2026 (confirmed by PBoC press release)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. July 2026 · Predicted for 20. August 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

38%

China remains in a disinflation phase; GDP growth is below the 5% target; the property sector stays under stress. The PBoC has cut the 1-year LPR multiple times since 2022. LPR decisions are announced on the 20th of each month — 20 August 2026 is the next regular decision date. No Polymarket market available; estimate: ~40% probability based on historical pattern and persistently weak domestic demand.

Data basis for this prediction

PBoC LPR Entscheidungskalender: Bekanntgabe am 20. jeden Monats (PBoC, pboc.gov.cn)
PBoC LPR Senkungen 2024–2025: mehrfache Cuts auf historische Tiefststände (Reuters, Dez 2025)
China CPI Juni 2026: Deflationsrisiko weiter präsent (National Bureau of Statistics China, Jul 2026)
China BIP Q2 2026: Wachstum unter 5%-Ziel (NBS China / Reuters, Jul 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Die PBoC hat am 20. August 2026 den 1-Jahres-LPR unverändert bei 3,00% belassen (5-Jahres-LPR ebenfalls unverändert bei 3,50%). Es war bereits der 15. Monat in Folge ohne Änderung seit Juni 2025. Alle 25 befragten Marktteilnehmer einer Reuters-Umfrage hatten im Vorfeld ebenfalls keine Änderung erwartet. Eine Senkung um mindestens 10 Basispunkte fand nicht statt. Quelle: chinamoney.com.cn (offizielle PBoC-Bekanntmachung vom 20.08.2026), chinanews.com.cn, wkzo.com.

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