⚽ Sports · Next Week

Valentin Paret-Peintre (AG2R Citroën, FRA) wins the Polka Dot jersey (mountains classification) at the 2026 Tour de France (Paris, 27 July 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 27. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

52%

After Jonas Vingegaard's crash and abandon (collarbone fracture, Stage 15, 20 July 2026), the KOM standings shift: Tadej Pogačar leads with 52 points but wears yellow and cannot wear the polka dot. On-road, the jersey goes to the runner-up: Paret-Peintre (43 pts, AG2R Citroën) ahead of Richard Carapaz (38 pts, EF Education). Four Alpine stages (16–20) remain where Carapaz could challenge, but Paret-Peintre's 5-point buffer is solid. No Polymarket market for KOM jersey; implied ~52% for Paret-Peintre.

Data basis for this prediction

CyclingStage.com: KOM-Wertung TdF 2026 nach Etappe 10 – Pogačar 52P, Paret-Peintre 43P, Carapaz 38P
CyclingNews.com: TdF GC-Standings + Vingegaard Aufgabe nach Etappe 15 (20. Juli 2026)
Velo/OutsideOnline: Vingegaard verlässt TdF 2026 nach Schlüsselbeinbruch Etappe 15
ProCyclingUK: Gepunktetes Trikot Regelung – Warum Vingegaard es trug, solange er im Rennen war

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Richard Carapaz hat das Gepunktete Trikot der Tour de France 2026 mathematisch gesichert (50 Punkte auf Etappe 20 über Croix de Fer, Télégraphe und Galibier) – Valentin Paret-Peintre kann das Bergtrikot nicht mehr gewinnen (Quelle: procyclinguk.com)

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