📈 Economy · Next Week

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) August 2026 year-over-year above 3.0% (BLS release approx. 10 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 1. September 2026 · Predicted for 10. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

80%

US CPI in July 2026 came in at +3.4% YoY (+0.1% MoM), driven by energy (+17.9% YoY, gasoline +28.4% YoY) (CNBC, 12 Aug 2026). Brent crude stood at $90.69/bbl on 31 Aug 2026 — persistently high energy prices support elevated inflation. CME FedWatch showed 55.7% hike probability after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech; Kalshi 47–54%. A drop below 3.0% by August would be an extraordinary trend break given the April peak of 3.8%.

Data basis for this prediction

CNBC: US CPI Juli 2026 = +3,4% YoY, +0,1% MoM (Veröffentlichung 12.8.2026)
Trading Economics / ICE: Brent-Rohöl 90,69 USD/Barrel am 31.8.2026
CME FedWatch: September-Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit 55,7% nach Jackson-Hole-Rede Warsh (31.8.2026)
Kalshi news.kalshi.com: Fed-September-Hike 47–54% (Stand 31.8.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Der US-CPI für August 2026 stieg gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 3,4% (CPI-U), veröffentlicht vom BLS am 11. September 2026. Damit lag er klar über der Vorhersageschwelle von 3,0%. Der Monatswert stieg ebenfalls deutlich auf +0,4% MoM (nach +0,1% im Juli), getrieben vor allem durch Benzin (+3,9% MoM), was die Annahme anhaltend hoher Energiepreise bestätigte. Quellen: BLS Consumer Price Index Summary – 2026 M08 (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm), BLS Archiv September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm).

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