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US Open 2026 (Tennis, USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center): Alexander Zverev (GER) Reaches the Men's Singles Semifinal (approx. 4–5 September 2026; confirmed by USTA or ATP)
Probability
32%
Jannik Sinner (ITA) has withdrawn from the 2026 US Open due to a right knee injury – confirmed by tennis365.com and LTA (21 Aug 2026). Sinner was trading at ~56.5% on Polymarket as favourite before the withdrawal. Alexander Zverev advances to an estimated Seed 2 or 3, potentially avoiding the upper quarter with defending champion Carlos Alcaraz. Polymarket had Zverev at 7.8% to win (pre-withdrawal); these odds increase significantly post-Sinner exit. Semifinal probability is considerably higher than the win probability. Risk: Zverev occasionally exits early at Grand Slams.
Data basis for this prediction
- Tennis365: 'US Open 2026 men's seeds – Alcaraz and Djokovic the big winners as Sinner withdraws with right knee injury' (21. Aug 2026)
- LTA (lta.org.uk): 'US Open 2026 preview – Sinner absent, Alcaraz top seed, Zverev moves up' (Aug 2026)
- Polymarket: 'US Open 2026 Men's Winner – Sinner 56,5 %, Alcaraz 12 %, Zverev 7,8 % (vor Rückzug)' (Aug 2026)
- Flashscore: 'US Open 2026 draw and schedule – main draw begins August 30' (Aug 2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Das Halbfinale der US Open 2026 findet frühestens ca. 12.–13. September statt. Runde 3 läuft am 4.–5. September (danach R4, QF, SF). Ein Erreichen des Halbfinales bis 5. September ist strukturell unmöglich. Quelle: US Open 2026 Schedule.