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US Open 2026 (Tennis, Flushing Meadows): Jannik Sinner (ITA, seed #1) reaches the men's singles semifinal (approx. September 5–6, 2026, confirmed by USTA or ATP)
Probability
65%
Sinner is the #1 seed at the 2026 US Open (starting August 30). Kalshi implies a 35% title probability for Sinner vs. Alcaraz (29%), Zverev (14%), and Djokovic (7%) per Covers.com (Aug 21). As top seed, he statistically only faces Top-5 opponents from the QF onward — semifinal probability is well above title probability, estimated 60–68%. Risk factor: knee ailment (withdrew from Cincinnati shortly before the tournament). Hard-court record over past 12 months: 39–4. The semifinal is a distinct event from the title (Carlos Alcaraz winning the title is an open prediction); Sinner reaching the semis is non-contradictory.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi / Covers.com: Sinner US-Open-Titelwahrscheinlichkeit 35 %, Alcaraz 29 % (Stand 21.08.2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 US Open (tennis) — Seedings Herreneinzel: Sinner Nr. 1, Alcaraz Nr. 3 (August 2026)
- Yahoo Sports: Sinner zog sich aus Cincinnati zurück (Kniebeschwerden, August 2026)
- World Tennis Magazine / Sportsbookreview: US Open 2026 Odds Overview (August 2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Jannik Sinner (ITA, Nr. 1) zog sich am 21. August 2026 vor Turnierbeginn mit einer anhaltenden Knieverletzung (rechtes Knie) vom US Open 2026 zurück. Er nahm nicht teil und kann das Halbfinale nicht erreichen. Quelle: usopen.org, ATP Tour, ESPN.