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US Open 2026 (Men's Singles, USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center): Carlos Alcaraz (ESP, seed #2) wins the tournament (final approx. September 14, 2026, confirmed by USTA or ATP)
Probability
27%
Alcaraz seeded #2; #1 is Alexander Zverev (GER). Jannik Sinner (ITA, world #1) has withdrawn — a major elimination of the strongest rival. Djokovic (#4) reaches QF per open platform prediction, Zverev reaches SF. With Alcaraz in the opposite half from the #1 seed, and Zverev in the SF, Alcaraz would face Djokovic or another semi-finalist there — his most favorable draw in years. Alcaraz won the US Open in 2022. Implied bookmaker odds post-Sinner withdrawal: ~22–28% win probability for Alcaraz.
Data basis for this prediction
- Tennis365: US Open 2026 Setzliste – Zverev Nr. 1, Alcaraz Nr. 2, Djokovic Nr. 4 nach Sinner-Abmeldung (Aug 2026)
- TennisConnected: 2026 US Open Entry Lists – vollständiges Feld und Setzliste (Aug 2026)
- Offene Plattformprognose: Djokovic erreicht US Open 2026 Viertelfinale; Zverev Halbfinale (offen)
- Buchmacherquoten (aggregiert): Alcaraz nach Sinner-Rückzug bei ~22–28 % Siegwahrscheinlichkeit (Aug 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.