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US Open 2026 Women's Semifinal: Aryna Sabalenka (BLR, No. 1) defeats Jessica Pegula (USA, No. 3) and advances to the final (September 9, 2026, Flushing Meadows, confirmed by USTA or WTA by September 10, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 9. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

67%

Sabalenka dominated Linda Nosková 6-4, 6-3 in the quarterfinal and faces No. 3 seed Pegula in the semifinal. As No. 1 seed, reigning 2024 and 2025 US Open champion, and clear favorite for a third consecutive title (per open Cassandra prediction), Sabalenka is the heavy favorite. Historical head-to-head clearly favors Sabalenka. Pegula is a strong opponent (2024 finalist) but typically loses to No. 1 seeds. The overarching open prediction 'Sabalenka wins the title' implicitly requires a semifinal win.

Data basis for this prediction

US Open 2026: Sabalenka besiegt Linda Nosková 6-4, 6-3 im Viertelfinale (Tennis Majors, 8. Sept 2026)
US Open 2026 Damen-Draw: Projektion SF Sabalenka vs. Pegula (Outlook India / Tennis Majors, 2026)
USTA US Open 2026: Sabalenka Nr. 1, Pegula Nr. 3 (Setzliste 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Laut Wikipedia (2026 US Open – Women's singles) besiegte Jessica Pegula Aryna Sabalenka im Halbfinale mit 3:6, 6:3, 6:3 – das genaue Gegenteil der Vorhersage. Pegula gewann anschließend auch das Finale gegen Elena Rybakina (3:6, 6:3, 6:3) und holte ihren ersten Grand-Slam-Titel. Sabalenka schied also im Halbfinale aus und zog nicht ins Finale ein.

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