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US Open 2026 Women's Final: Aryna Sabalenka (BLR, No. 1) wins the title (Flushing Meadows, September 12, 2026, confirmed by USTA or WTA by September 12, 2026)
Probability
50%
Aryna Sabalenka (No. 1) faces Linda Noskova (No. 6) in the semi-final; on the other side are Mirra Andreeva (No. 5) and Coco Gauff (No. 4). Kalshi prices Sabalenka at approximately 23–24% for the tournament title (as of September 7, 2026, with >$9M volume on Polymarket). Conditional on her already-secured semi-final berth and a favourable SF draw vs Noskova, the implied final-win probability rises to approximately 50%. Sabalenka is a two-time US Open champion (2023, 2024) and historically at her strongest in New York. Against either Andreeva or Gauff in the final she holds a positive head-to-head record. Existing open forecasts cover only individual matches — the title itself is uncovered.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi 'Women's US Open Winner': Sabalenka ~24 % (Stand 7. September 2026)
- Polymarket Women's US Open Winner: Vol. >9,17 Mio. USD (Stand 5. September 2026)
- US Open 2026 SF-Lineup: Sabalenka vs. Noskova / Andreeva vs. Gauff (Wikipedia Draw, 8. September 2026)
- Sabalenka US Open Siege: 2023 und 2024 (USTA Archiv)
Verdict: Miss
Sabalenka hat das US-Open-2026-Damen-Finale verloren. Elena Rybakina besiegte sie am 12. September 2026 mit 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 und gewann damit ihren ersten US-Open-Titel (ihren dritten Grand-Slam-Titel insgesamt). Rybakina hatte kurz zuvor zudem die Weltranglisten-Nr.-1 von Sabalenka übernommen. Die Vorhersage scheiterte daran, dass Sabalenka im Finale auf eine in Topform befindliche Rybakina traf, nicht auf Andreeva oder Gauff. Quellen: Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/9/12/elena-rybakina-defeats-aryna-sabalenka-in-us-open-womens-singles-final), CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/12/sport/womens-us-open-final-2026), CBS Sports (https://www.cbssports.com/tennis/news/us-open-2026-schedule-results-live-updates-womens-final-aryna-sabalenka-elena-rybakina/live/).