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US Open 2026 (Women's Singles, USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows): Aryna Sabalenka (BLR, No. 1 seed) wins the tournament (final approx. September 13, 2026, confirmed by USTA or WTA)
Probability
27%
Polymarket gives Sabalenka a 26% chance as the clear favorite (as of approx. August 20, 2026). She is a two-time US Open champion (2023, 2024) and enters the tournament with an outstanding 2026 season (25-2 before the Madrid quarterfinals). The fast Flushing Meadows surface suits her especially well. Swiatek and Rybakina are projected to reach the semifinals per existing platform forecasts; Gauff is at approximately 8.9% on Polymarket. The field is competitive, but Sabalenka remains the structurally strongest player for this surface and tournament conditions. I adopt the Polymarket anchor of 26% virtually unchanged (→27%).
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Sabalenka 26 % für US Open Damen-Einzel 2026 (ca. 20. August 2026, polymarket.com)
- Deadspin Prediction Markets: '2026 US Open Women's Singles – Can Sabalenka Three-Peat?' (Juli 2026)
- crushrushnews.com: 'Polymarket US Open Odds: Sabalenka Tops Field' (15. August 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.